American President Donald Trump claims that the declassified documents from his administration show that U.S. elections remain vulnerable to foreign interference, especially from China.
The published information does not demonstrate that any previous election, including the one in 2020, was fraudulent or that its outcome was altered.
A large part of the documents made public on Thursday reiterate information known for years in the American intelligence community and vulnerabilities that electoral authorities are already trying to reduce, according to an analysis by CNN.
At the same time, the documents also contain some new information, but these do not change the official conclusions drawn after the 2020 presidential elections.
The documents do not confirm that election results were manipulated
CNN emphasizes that none of the declassified documents support the claim that results of any American elections were altered through fraud or foreign interference.
The White House states that the purpose of releasing the documents is to identify and address vulnerabilities ahead of the parliamentary elections in November, not to reopen disputes regarding the 2020 election.
However, the analysis points out that the Trump administration has dismantled several federal structures in recent years that monitored and made public foreign influence campaigns.
At the same time, administration officials claim that some information has been concealed for years by high-ranking American officials for political reasons.
Voting machines can be attacked, but there is no evidence that results were altered
Among Trump's main arguments is the vulnerability of electronic voting systems.
CNN reports that a 2020 National Intelligence Council report concluded that Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have the capability to access and theoretically manipulate American voter databases.
However, the same document stated that since elections are organized in a decentralized manner, at the state and county levels, potential attacks would be difficult to scale to a sufficient extent to alter the outcome of a national election.
The analysis also notes that there are known vulnerabilities in U.S. voting systems, but neither Trump nor his allies have presented evidence so far that these have been successfully exploited to change votes.
Another document cited by the White House reiterates the theory that a Smartmatic voting system could alter votes without leaving traces. However, CNN points out that a previously declassified CIA memorandum concluded that Venezuela and Smartmatic did not have the capacity to manipulate elections outside Venezuela.
Furthermore, Smartmatic software is currently used only in one jurisdiction in the U.S., in Los Angeles County.
China and American voter data
The Trump administration alleges that Beijing obtained over 200 million voter registration records of American voters, containing names, addresses, phone numbers, political affiliations, and other information.
According to CNN's analysis, access to such data could pose a real risk, as a foreign adversary could learn numerous details about American voters or attempt to create chaos by altering active databases.
However, the American publication emphasizes that the United States has never accused China of altering or deleting voter registrations or of altering election results.
The analysis also recalls that U.S. intelligence services have warned for years that Beijing is trying to collect as much data as possible about American citizens. In 2015, Chinese hackers compromised federal government servers and stole over 20 million sensitive records.
Regarding the 2020 elections, a report from the National Intelligence Council cited by CNN indicated that China's activities were limited to "exploratory steps," and American officials later concluded that Beijing had considered influencing the election but had abandoned the idea.
What the documents reveal about foreign citizens on voter lists
Another argument put forth by the White House is that approximately 250,000 foreign citizens are on voter lists in multiple states. However, CNN points out that the estimate was made using commercial data, considered less reliable than government data.
On the other hand, a Department of Homeland Security document shows that after verifying over 68 million voter registrations through the federal SAVE system, about 28,000 foreign citizens illegally registered to vote were identified.
Even if the number of non-American citizens on lists may be higher than previously thought, the analysis emphasizes that the documents do not indicate a significant increase in cases where they actually voted.
According to experts cited by CNN, illegal voting by foreign citizens in federal elections is a rare phenomenon.
The analysis points out that the database of the conservative organization Heritage Foundation identifies fewer than 100 confirmed cases of illegal voting by foreign citizens between 2002-2022, out of over a billion legally cast votes. Similarly, the Brennan Center for Justice, an independent American research institute in law and public policy, identified about 30 such cases after analyzing over 23 million votes cast in the 2016 elections.