Vladimir Putin, when he approved the ballistic missile attack on the city of Sumy, in eastern Ukraine, on Palm Sunday, knew exactly what he was doing. It was 10:15 in the morning, and people were heading to churches on a sunny spring day. Later, Kremlin officials denied targeting civilians, but the reaction came late after a series of international protests.
The Russian leader was also aware of the impact such an attack would have on American negotiators and Donald Trump.
The message conveyed by the Russian president is clear: I am not interested in a ceasefire unless on my terms.
After World War II, the Geneva Conventions and Protocols prohibit direct attacks on civilians and require the distinction between combatants and civilians in an armed conflict.
Moreover, in the 1998 Statute of the International Criminal Court, intentional attacks on civilians are considered "war crimes."
This is the reason why judges of the respective court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin following the "Bucha massacre" on April 1, 2022, carried out by the occupying forces in the Ukrainian town.
Sumy is a city located 180 kilometers north of Kharkiv and, before the war, had around 250,000 inhabitants. It is also the birthplace of former Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba.
The two ballistic missiles launched by Kremlin forces resulted in the death of at least 34 people, with 117 others injured. The explosions prompted a wave of protests from European officials and disapproval from Donald Trump. The American President avoided criticizing Putin, refraining from jeopardizing discussions between the US and Russia, whatever they may entail, after so many diplomatic failures.
"I think it was terrible. I was told they made a mistake. But I think it's a horrible thing," Donald Trump told journalists, a few hours after the attack.
It is unclear whether the American President received a message from Moscow stating it was an error or if Trump was once again using his peculiar way of speaking, avoiding revealing the true events or his knowledge of them.
How to Lie to Yourself
On the other hand, Russian officials did not address any possible error that led to the tragedy. The Ministry of Defense announced that the missiles targeted a building where a significant number of Ukrainian military commanders were meeting, eliminating over 60 of them.
The information could not be independently verified, but it is unlikely that, in wartime conditions, Ukrainian military authorities would approve a meeting of such a large number of officers and military leaders.
At no point did Vladimir Putin ease the pressure on the neighboring country. Since the invasion began in February 2022, he has utilized all conventional forces at his disposal to achieve his goal, that of conquering Ukraine.
Although shortly after the invasion, he realized the immense strategic mistake he made by planning a short-lived conflict, Putin did not retreat, losing around a million soldiers - dead and severely wounded to the point of being permanently removed from combat - over the three-plus years of war.
With each day of conflict, the Russian leader deluded himself and allowed himself to be deceived by those around him that he could win the war.
But the opposite happened. A clear look at the current troop movements on the front lines would reveal that Russian soldiers are no longer advancing, struggling and needlessly sacrificing thousands of lives to hold their positions.
Meanwhile, Ukraine no longer faces an issue with armaments, having superiority in drone usage on the contact line between the two armies, and the military manpower crisis is being addressed by reducing the conscription age from 27 to 25, through a law passed last spring. According to Ukrainian sources, Kiev currently has a combat force of 950,000 people.
Trump: I Have Nothing to Do with This War
After Donald Trump took office and made it clear he did not support Zelensky, European states, as well as Canada, Australia, and Japan, mobilized and continued to support Ukraine's war effort.
Today, negotiations between the US and Russia are at a standstill, with Donald Trump lacking any political leverage to impose anything on Moscow, Kiev, or Brussels.
The political missteps of the American President, which have been ongoing since his return to the White House, have created a situation of confusion even within his own cabinet, causing disorder, tensions, and resignations. Thus, Donald Trump is acting increasingly chaotically, losing authority.
"The war between Russia and Ukraine is Biden's war, not mine. I just got here, and during my first term, over four years, I had no problem stopping it from starting. President Putin, and all the others, respected your president (meaning Trump)," wrote the American leader in a peculiar post on his social network.
"I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS WAR, BUT I AM WORKING HARD TO STOP DEATH AND DESTRUCTION," Trump announced in capital letters to emphasize the message's importance.
"If the 2020 presidential elections hadn't been rigged, and they were rigged in so many ways, this horrible war would never have happened," asserts the American President in an association between a false claim, that of election theft, and the war in Ukraine.
"President Zelensky and the conman Joe Biden did a terrible job allowing this farce to start. There were so many ways to prevent this. But that's the past. Now we have to stop it, AND QUICKLY. SO SAD!" Donald Trump further wrote, continuing to claim he can stop the war, even though Vladimir Putin has violated all agreements reached by American and Russian delegations so far.
China's Moves
The collapse of Trump's influence has created a problem for Putin, who now sees his entire plan disrupted by the fact that the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada have taken a different path, and the fate of Russia's support by China could be on the negotiating table in the complex trade war initiated by the same American President.
In recent days, Beijing has launched a diplomatic campaign to create a free trade alliance outside the US, with the EU, and other interested parties.
In ongoing discussions, representatives from the European Commission, as well as British diplomats, will also bring up the issue of the war in Ukraine and its effects with China.
Beijing's response to Kiev's accusations that Chinese soldiers are fighting alongside Kremlin forces was intriguing.
Not only did China deny sending troops as claimed by Ukrainian authorities, but the Government also urged potential mercenaries from the country to refrain from fighting alongside Russia in the future.
... I was the target of Russian chemical weapons immediately after being taken prisoner by a Ukrainian soldier... I was losing strength and fainting… Then, I felt someone grab me by the collar and pull me out into the air...
Wang Guangjun, Chinese military, captured by Ukrainians, statement in a press conference
According to Ukrainian forces' data, the project involving the deployment of Chinese troops was a serious one, put into action before Trump's return to the White House.
As Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense at the time of the 2003 Iraq attack, said: a war we know how it starts, but we never know how it ends, this is the situation now when Trump's much-anticipated peace has actually turned into fuel that feeds the conflict.