After two months of crisis, with a government dismissed by a vote of no confidence, a first survey has emerged, conducted by the Political Rating Agency.
In broad terms, it shows that the winners of this period are Ilie Bolojan and PNL, with the former becoming the central figure of the pro-European movement in Romania.
The Liberals are also winners of the crisis, becoming the second political force after AUR.
Journalists and political commentators sensed that political hierarchies have changed significantly, and PSD and Nicușor Dan are the major losers of the vote of no confidence, being seen as responsible for the situation by the majority of public opinion.
However, certain clarifications are needed for interpreting the figures - the margin of error is ±2.8%.
Nevertheless, a significant trend can be observed; there is a consolidated societal need for early elections - 33.2% of the population desires a return to the polls, the highest figure, while 23.8% remain undecided.
"No electoral base has a favored solution for exiting the crisis, except for AUR voters, who desire early elections," stated Cristian Andrei, the political consultant who coordinated the survey.
PSD, in third place
A political survey released in a crisis situation has an impact - indicating the societal trends following the government's dismissal by PSD and AUR.
The trends do not bode well for Sorin Grindeanu or Nicușor Dan.
PSD has reached an 18% voting intention, with the president, the most visible and influential political leader in the country, ranking third in terms of trust, behind George Simion and Ilie Bolojan, 10 percentage points behind the AUR leader and 5 behind the PNL leader. "Regarding trust, both Dominic Fritz and George Simion are on the rise, while President Nicușor Dan and Sorin Grindeanu remain at the same level as in April," emphasized Cristian Andrei from the Political Rating Agency.
Distrust and Negative Reactions
As expected, the survey has sparked many reactions on social media, with users being skeptical of the figures.
The interest in the survey is linked to the fact that in a period of two and a half months, since the crisis began, no public opinion research institute has provided data.
On the other hand, negative reactions to the publication of the figures are the result of the widespread lack of confidence in opinion polls, frequently used as tools for promoting and propagandizing leaders and parties.
From the initial figures following the crisis, we observe that Ilie Bolojan has become the only political leader who can defeat George Simion, and that the association between PNL and USR becomes an alternative to AUR extremism.
PSD is on a downward trend, and it is hard to believe that this will change as long as the party is led by Sorin Grindeanu, Lia Olguța Vasilescu, Claudiu Manda, and Paul Stănescu.
Issue of the PSD Minority Government
Another observation indicates that Ilie Bolojan and Dominic Fritz have no interest in making any compromises to support a PSD minority government as the current situation benefits them.
Both PNL and USR will lose if they associate again with the social democrats. The survey conducted by the Political Rating Agency indicates that only two paths can lead out of the current crisis:
- A PSD-AUR majority, which dismissed the Bolojan Government;
- Early elections;
Any other formula would require the victim to compromise with the executioner, a situation where public support for the unjustly treated individual evaporates.
There is, however, a possibility for Sorin Grindeanu to become prime minister - by signing a protocol through which the PSD leader offers PNL and USR control mechanisms over the future government.
Nicușor Dan has withdrawn from negotiations, but the crisis effect significantly erodes confidence in the president. Even though this survey does not show a change in public attachment to the head of state, the trends are concerning.
With each passing day, Romania is getting closer to early elections, even though no political actor truly wants this to happen.
If in the coming weeks a formula to support a PSD minority government or an alliance between the social democrats and AUR is not reached, Sorin Grindeanu's position at the helm of the party becomes uncertain.