The breakdown of the world order is unfolding much faster than anticipated. The reality of the post-American era does not mean a world without America. As a geopolitical actor, the United States has become a kind of cumbersome „zombie,” a beast that can be triggered by sudden shocks to react reflexively, but has lost its higher-level capabilities.
Initially, there was anger over America’s betrayal as President Trump called for the annexation of Canada, threatened Greenland, imposed tariffs on his allies, and began undermining NATO – a move continued at the alliance’s most recent meeting held this week in Ankara, Turkey.
Now, in some of the countries previously considered America's allies, a strange sentiment is beginning to take shape: an optimistic feeling. There is a well-established principle in chess that also applies to geopolitics: "The threat is stronger than the action." The possibility of the U.S. abandoning the world order seemed terrifying. However, reality proves to be a new beginning, writes Stephen Marche, author of the book “The Next Civil War”, in an article published by The New York Times.
America's neighbor, Canada, was the first to realize this.
What Canadians Understood
Since the beginning of Trump's second term, America's aggressive pressures in the commercial sector have been harsh. Consequently, Canada had to assess the value of American goodwill or disapproval. The Bank of Canada recently simulated a scenario in which the United States imposes a 25% tariff on all products exported from Canada to the U.S.
Canada's GDP growth rate would slow by approximately 2.4 percentage points - an impact that, over an adjustment period, fits perfectly within the country's management capacity. A disaster, for sure, but not the end of the world. This is the most pessimistic scenario.
A recent study conducted by economists at the Canadian Shield Institute, commissioned for the "Gloves Off" podcast, revealed that Canadian goods exports to the United States dropped last year by over 30 billion Canadian dollars (21 billion U.S. dollars), representing over 5% of total exports to the U.S.
However, this loss was offset by a new demand worth nearly 29 billion Canadian dollars from the rest of the world. If services are included, Canada's total exports increased by almost 7 billion dollars. America can issue any threats it wants, but if you have aluminum, oil, or potassium, someone will buy them.
And it's not just about Canada, notes the author.
Europe Learns to Cope Without America
European actions outperformed American ones in 2025 and recorded strong growth in the first two months of 2026. The European Industrial Strategy in Defense, implemented in 2024, contributes to keeping a larger share of European military expenditures within the continent, which are expanding.
And after the threat posed by the European Union's anti-coercion tool - the so-called "commercial bazooka," allowing for the rapid imposition of retaliatory tariffs - forced Trump to abandon his initial threats regarding Greenland, Europeans now know they have their own equivalent of the Strait of Hormuz: a vulnerable point capable of making America back down.
U.S. Army Invents New Forms of Failure
American military threats are also losing effectiveness. If recent history has taught us anything, it is that when the United States decides to achieve a geopolitical goal through military force, it can be fairly certain that goal will not be achieved, writes Marche.
Despite all unfavorable predictions in a conflict with the United States, Iran's corrupt and ruthless regime has maintained power and now benefits from a relaxation of sanctions. While the U.S. Army invents new forms of failure, the Gulf states - and their airports - have learned, during the war with Iran, the real value of an American security guarantee.
At the NATO meeting in Ankara, where Trump harshly criticized allied states - especially Spain - and reiterated the request for the U.S. to take control of Greenland, the leaders of Spain and Denmark treated his comments as baseless threats, as it was evident they were.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney could rightly argue that Trump "won the dispute" regarding the necessity for NATO member states to increase their defense spending. The reason why they are now allocating more funds could be the realization that American military power is declining. American support - whatever its significance may be now - offers no guarantees.
A Cumbersome "Zombie"
Bureaucrats once characterized by slowness are now acting with surprising speed to limit their exposure to both the U.S. government and companies serving as outposts of American power, the author emphasizes.
Since taking office just over a year ago, the Carney government has concluded over 100 international trade agreements. The European Union has deliberately expanded its defense acquisitions to avoid integration with American military forces.
Dismantling American technology will be the most challenging task, but concrete steps have already been taken in this regard: The European Union has replaced Google with the French search engine Qwant as the default option in its official systems, while Belgium and Finland have abandoned Amazon Web Services.
Of course, the reality of the post-American era does not mean a world without America. As a geopolitical actor, the United States has become a kind of cumbersome "zombie," a beast that can be triggered by sudden shocks to react reflexively, but has lost its higher-level capabilities.
America Is No Longer Capable of Leading Itself
Many around the world understand that a new electoral cycle - whether in the midterm elections or in 2028 - will not solve anything. Many observers outside the United States believe that the American people are so divided that the future will be chaotic, regardless of who wins. They fear that neither a Republican nor a Democratic president, no matter how balanced, could guarantee stable American policy or the consistent application of even vague principles in international relations.
The question "What is America?" is no longer a theoretical issue of magnitude but a practical one. Governors of several American states have rational political programs. American institutions continue to function. Some Americans have even retained their ideals.
However, when we refer to the entity known as the United States of America, we find a lack of substance: there is no longer a true America with which one can interact. An increasingly isolationist America is no longer the leader of the free world. How could it be when it is no longer capable of leading itself?
America, Its Own Enemy
The "zombie America" generates contradictions, at least in the short term. In Canada, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), operated jointly with the United States, remains the most important security partnership. However, public officials there have started drone exercises, preparing for the possibility of an asymmetric conflict with the United States. True security can only be achieved by detaching this country from American influence on all fronts and to the extent possible, as the author points out.
Marche returns to the maxim of Aron Nimzowitsch, a prominent figure of the hypermodern chess school: "The threat is stronger than the action." According to this principle that applies on the chessboard, all the time and energy spent trying to avoid a disaster prove to be more harmful than the disaster itself. When the worst has happened, you can focus on progressive improvements instead of trying to avoid the situation; you can adopt an active attitude instead of a passive one. And in geopolitics, much of real power lies in the mere appearance of power.
Anyone who believes in freedom, democracy, human dignity, and the right of nations to self-determination should advocate for the destruction of the United States' ability to project its power - to end the suffocating influence it exerts on the world, allowing us all to move forward. So far, no one contributes more to this process than the United States itself, concludes Stephen Marche.
T.D.