The return of Trump to the White House: What does it mean for Ukraine, for Europe, and America?

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections has brought uncertainty and unease to the forefront for many global actors, especially for Ukraine and its European allies. At a time when geopolitical tensions are more intense than ever, Trump's return to the White House raises major questions about the future of American support for Ukraine and the maintenance of Western unity in the face of Russian expansionism.
The return of Trump to the White House: What does it mean for Ukraine, for Europe, and America?

Although personally I would have preferred Kamala Harris to win, like 66 million Americans, a majority of citizens from the European Union and Ukraine, Donald Trump has returned to the White House following the vote of 71 million U.S. citizens.

Thus, the most powerful democracy in the world will have a peaceful transfer of power, although Putin probably would have preferred an America in chaos, with riots, protests, and sliding towards civil war.

This idea is presented in an article published by CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis), written by Francis Harris.

"Trump cannot end the war because he needs Putin's agreement," said Vitali Portnikov, the most well-known and respected commentator in Ukraine. "What will he do if Putin refuses to listen to him? Trump cannot give Putin what Putin wants," the article cited above states.

For those who closely followed the electoral campaign, polls, and expert analyses, Trump's victory was not a big surprise.

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Both candidates had their chances, and in the three key states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the difference between Trump and Harris was less than 2%.

The polls conducted by reputable, traditional firms were accurate within the published margin of error. And the projection platforms, based on the average of polls, as well. Both FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin made correct predictions.

Putin Wants to Meet Trump

To better understand what happened, imagine a tennis match between Trump and Harris, in which the former wins 3-0 in sets, and each set ends 7-6 in favor of Donald Trump. It looks like a victory by score, but obtained narrowly.

It is certain that as of Wednesday, November 6, the world has entered a new reality, and a series of major changes will follow, but it is very difficult to predict in which direction.

The most exposed are the Ukrainians, who, following the statements during Donald Trump's electoral campaign that he would end the conflict within 24 hours of returning to the White House, expect a cut in military aid from the U.S., as well as diplomatic pressure to accept the cession of territories occupied by the Russians in exchange for a ceasefire.

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On the other hand, Russian officials have denied seeing a quick end to the war.

The issue is that in the neighboring country, there is no ongoing military conflict for the occupation or liberation of territories. Vladimir Putin has initiated an invasion that attacks European stability, the NATO military alliance, attempting to change the global power balance and limit the influence of the U.S. and Western democracies.

16th BRICS Summit in Kazan
HOPE AT THE KREMLIN. Vladimir Putin aims to take full advantage of his good relationship with Donald Trump to emerge from international isolation - Photo: Hepta.ro

"I expect our relationship with the United States to start improving. We are open to discussions," stated Vladimir Putin in his first public appearance after the U.S. elections.

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And from the words of the Russian leader, it is clear that he is seeking an official meeting with Trump, through which he can return to the international stage, a discussion about lifting sanctions, stopping arms deliveries, all before there is even the slightest discussion about a ceasefire.

Will We Win or Will We Lose

Olena Tregub, from Ukraine, a social activist involved in the fight against corruption, said that the new Trump administration will move things in one direction or another.

"We will either gain a lot or lose a lot," she declared in an article published by CEPA.

She also described the general atmosphere in Ukraine, which sees the change in the U.S. as a new beginning in a completely unknown direction.

Donald Trump may meet with Putin, but this does not mean that the United Kingdom or the European Union will stop transferring weapons to Ukraine.

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THE PROMISE. Donald Trump has repeatedly said he will quickly end the war in Ukraine, but international community leaders are skeptical he will succeed - Photo: Hepta.ro

There are increasing statements about creating a common defense system at the EU level, and people's fear of Russian expansionism could make this possible. A detachment of Europe from the U.S. in the military field would be a strategic loss for Americans, who have in the countries on the continent their strongest and most loyal allies.

Moreover, Ukrainians have witnessed numerous changes of political regimes in Europe and the U.S. in the last decade, the only thing that has not changed is their resistance to Russia, regardless of who was in power in their country and in the Western world.

"During this time, we have learned that when we fight with Russia, we die by the thousands, and when we give in, by the millions," said Lesia Orobets, a former Ukrainian parliamentarian, according to the source cited.

The UK Takes Over from the U.S.

So soon many more forces will come into play. The United Kingdom, with a stable Labour government, shows through Prime Minister Keir Starmer that it wants to assume the role of guarantor of protecting Europe and international institutions.

"So, who will take the lead in Europe? The answer to this question should be simple: the United Kingdom. Together with France, it is the preeminent military power on the continent, with a strong nuclear deterrence force. But unlike France, there is no extreme right or pro-Putin left in the UK that could easily take power in the coming years," wrote Ian Dunt for the British newspaper "The Independent."

As if to confirm this, the British government decided on Friday to impose new sanctions on Russia.

"The pro-Russian extreme right also affects Germany. Due to its size, influence, and economic power, Germany should take on the role of leader. But the Alternative for Germany, the extreme right party, and Reason and Justice, of the extreme left, are both pro-Putin and could easily cause a political upheaval in the not too distant future," Ian Dunt emphasized.

Putin, a Threat to America

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the hundreds of thousands of soldiers who have died so far have created a conflictual situation that cannot be resolved in 24 hours, as Trump promised.

The U.S. President-elect will soon face challenges with no immediate solutions and that will directly impact America.

As much as he would like to downplay what is happening in Ukraine, the new administration at the White House will soon realize that Putin is a direct threat to the U.S., not just to Europe, and isolationism means surrender to the Kremlin, not resolving the crisis.


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