My major doubt regarding Călin Georgescu is whether the man is completely unhinged, meaning an authentic psychiatric case deserving specialized care and genuine compassion, or if he is an extremely talented charlatan, well-trained and legendary, who has skillfully ridden the wave of popular fury that he now surfs.
Both scenarios make Călin Georgescu extremely toxic and absolutely incompatible with the presidential function, an incompatibility further proven by the elements from the declassified CSAT documents.
Elena Lasconi is far from ideal for this position, but despite all her shortcomings, the denial of which would be ridiculous, she is not morally/psychiatrically incompatible with the presidential function. Yes, we have reached a desolate choice, but not facing it helps no one.
Reasons for Disqualification
Normally, even if, catastrophically for the electorate's discernment, he were to win the Sunday election, Mr. Georgescu will not effectively become the President of Romania.
"The declared elected candidates cannot have their mandates validated if the detailed report of electoral incomes and expenses for each political party or independent candidate has not been submitted under the conditions of the law," as provided by Law 334/2006.
Mr. Georgescu declared zero campaign expenses, and the SRI document provides evidence that he lied.
Decision CCR 408/2020, the most recent on this matter, established "that the obligation to submit the financial report (...) represents a procedural condition that a person who has entered an electoral competition must fulfill to exercise the right to be elected to the position for which they ran. In other words, the law establishes an additional condition, subsequent to the electoral process but closely related to the activities it involves, a condition whose fulfillment determines the validation of the mandate in the elective public office."
Of course, the declassified information about the involvement of the state entity, obviously Russia, in manipulating TikTok adds to this.
Regarding what might happen beyond the candidacy of the unhinged/charlatan, Cristian Diaconescu has explained. In short, NATO Articles 4 and 5.
What Harm Can Călin Georgescu Cause from the Presidential Position?
It would be ideal if activating the nuclear option of invalidating the mandate were not necessary. An electorate with a compass and discernment cannot choose such a man.
I do not know what impact the declassification and Marcel Ciolacu's endorsement of Elena Lasconi will have. What we should contemplate on our own is the answer to the question: what harm can Georgescu cause from the presidential position?
Yes, the president's powers are limited, far from absolute, and he can be stopped if he goes astray, but at a cost.
He can appoint whomever he wants as prime minister, but not endlessly. If he persists with proposals from the extremist camp, obviously without a majority, before reaching the 3-month mark when the dissolution of the Legislative body is considered, it will certainly end up at the CCR, one dominated by judges proposed by PSD, PNL, and Iohannis. They will decide whether Marcel Ciolacu can be denied the appointment as prime minister of a clear majority, including PNL.
The President can be suspended by Parliament, as we have seen twice recently in history, and the interim president has 30 days with all essential functions of the office, including the appointment of the prime minister.
A potential exit from NATO and the EU is by no means within the president's purview. He can convene a referendum on this issue or any other, but it is consultative and does not compel immediate action, even if it were validated and had majority support for an exit, of which there is absolutely no sign.
Among those who voted for Mr. Georgescu, very few want to leave the EU and NATO; most are furious with traditional politics.
This does not mean that an unhinged or charlatan president cannot do a great deal of harm. He can!
In foreign and domestic policy positions, in the few discretionary appointments, with all kinds of obstacles thrown into the wheels of governmental and legislative actions that he cannot block but can delay.
In the economic domain, where we are already seeing the first effects. Major companies are already devising two types of strategies for next year, depending on Romania's direction, one of which includes an exit.
As Mr. Georgescu puts his ideas into action, the evident harm he is capable of will need to be blocked by Parliament, going as far as suspension, as I mentioned earlier.
It will be a continuous cat-and-mouse game, with continuous interinstitutional scandals, a battle in which Mr. Georgescu will not be alone. And I am not referring primarily to extremist parties.
The biggest lie is that he represents the anti-system. Behind Mr. Georgescu, an increasingly transparent and organized system of zombies emerging from the caves into which Romania's Euro-Atlantic evolution has pushed them can be seen.
His close ties to the Ceaușescu-era security sphere were documented by Emilian Isailă and then by Mihai Gâdea. His discourse directly leads to Ceaușescu's national-socialism, to which he has added extremely hypnotic mysticism.
To Mr. Georgescu's right sits a neo-legionary who organizes paramilitary training. His bodyguards are rumored to be mercenaries with experience in the Foreign Legion. The lists of his party, POT, are filled with reservists from the most obscure area of the services.
This system, evidently organized, has only just begun the power struggle and, in light of the new information, I do not exclude it being a physically violent one, following the legionary model. Because this is not about the romanticized legionarism from the two-bit magazines at the Obor market, nor about the nationalist slogans for show, but about true legionarism that comes and cuts your throat at the Captain's command.
Attack on the Presidential Function
In this war, the pro-European electorate will learn to see the president as an enemy, to ignore or detest him. Not to consider him a mere reference point, but a danger.
And Mr. Georgescu's electorate is not one with much patience. They want delivery. And if it is not delivered, they will be quickly disappointed.
The continuous scandal, with inevitable effects on governance, will further exhaust a people already tired and disgusted with politics, weakening democracy that has already reached a critical point.
In the initial phase, the collapse will affect the officeholder, but over time, not very long, the perception will also strike at the function itself.
Not Georgescu, but the President of Romania will become irrelevant to the people, opening the way even to a change to a parliamentary political system.
Would that be a bad thing? Not inherently, many European democracies are parliamentary republics, but the path to such a change must be rational, principled, not the result of coercion against a president who has become, for some, an enemy or, for others, irrelevant.
Klaus Iohannis has already taken some steps in this direction. It is possible that Mr. Georgescu, if he gets there, will complete the operation.
Ultimately, these elections are also about saving the presidential function from the void into which an unhinged/charlatan can throw it.