Drones and explosives found in Germany, related to a possible attack on Leipzig airport. A naval drone shot down near a gas platform in the Black Sea. An assassination plan targeting the head of a major European arms manufacturer.
Operations attributed to Russia on European soil are becoming bolder, and some experts question if the term „hybrid warfare” accurately describes the situation. However, European leaders continue to use it, as recognizing a direct conflict with Moscow could have major military and economic consequences, writes Politico.
Threats increasingly difficult to label as "hybrid"
Germany discovered a third drone and explosives at the beginning of this week, which investigators believe could be linked to preparations for an airport attack.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that his country is facing "very real threats" and is increasingly targeted by "hybrid attackers."
Following the incident in the Black Sea, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also spoke of "an escalating campaign of threats" and a "hybrid war".
However, the list of incidents is growing. Some intelligence services fear that these operations may pave the way for a direct Russian attack on a NATO member state. In this context, CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to Moscow this week to warn the Kremlin not to attack any Alliance member.
"We are indeed in a hybrid war that is no longer so 'hybrid'," says Camille Grand, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and current Director of the European Association of Aerospace, Security, and Defense Industries.
According to her, European defense industry executives have strengthened their personal security measures in recent months after threats received by the head of the Swedish arms company Saab and the discovery of an assassination plan targeting the CEO of Rheinmetall, the German armaments giant.
Why Europe avoids talking about war
EU leaders and officials do not want to convey that Russia is on the brink of a direct attack. "We can say very clearly that European services do not see any risk of an attack on European countries," said a senior European official to Politico, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The terms "hybrid threat" and "hybrid war" encompass a combination of pressures and subversive actions. These can be diplomatic, military, economic, or technological and are coordinated to achieve specific objectives without crossing the threshold of officially declared war, according to the European Commission's definition.
The term is used for actions that do not constitute direct military attacks on European targets. Thus, the EU and NATO are not put in a position to respond militarily.
The notion also suggests that these threats have become commonplace after nearly two decades of low-intensity attacks and provocations in Europe.
There is also an economic reason. Recognizing that European states are in a war or in direct conflict with Russia could lead to investor withdrawals and a significant increase in insurance premiums.
NATO: We have moved beyond mere threats
James Appathurai, NATO Deputy Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid Threats, and Cyber Security, believes the term remains appropriate for Russia's actions, including violating NATO or EU airspace with drones and aircraft.
"We tend to use the term 'hybrid actions' because we have long passed the stage of mere threats, as can be seen from the multitude of cyber attacks, acts of sabotage, and drone incursions," he explained.
NATO responds to these actions with measures such as the coordinated expulsion of Russian "diplomats" or deploying military assets in the Baltic Sea to protect submarine infrastructure.
Critics warn, however, that the excessive use of the term "hybrid war," including for assassinations and drone incursions, could give the public a false sense of security.
"We should simply talk about a conflict"
"We should simply talk about a conflict," says Pawel Wieczynski, director of the defense technology company DataWalk.
He recalls that Russia came very close, last December, to paralyzing the entire energy network of Poland.
"We were just minutes away from our country being left without electricity. They try to blow up railways - and they succeeded in at least one case. They send packages filled with explosives. There is a huge number of cyber attacks: Poland is the European country facing the most cyber attacks," says Wieczynski.
"How can you say you are not in a conflict when a foreign state kills citizens and blows up railways?" he asks, recalling the assassination of Semyon Skrepetsky, an artist and vocal critic of Vladimir Putin.
"They are testing the limits"
Camille Grand sees a similarity between the gradual escalation of operations attributed to Russia and how the West increased its support for Ukraine after the 2022 invasion. "We started by sending helmets and sleeping bags and ended up with long-range missiles," he says.
However, Russia applies the "boiling frog method": each action pushes the boundaries a little further without immediately provoking a decisive response.
"What was shocking yesterday becomes normal tomorrow, and so on, until you find yourself in a much more intense situation. They are testing the limits," Grand warns.
G.P.