Apparently, the political winner in Romania following Donald Trump’s victory should be George Simion. However caricatural, Simion is still the most important exponent of the Trumpist current, with all that it entails: bluster, an infinite number of „isms,” total disregard for the rights and beliefs of those who have a different opinion and orientation, simplism, and violence.
The success of this coarse recipe, specifically its adoption by many moderates in exchange for the hope that the price of milk and gasoline will not increase, could represent a validation in Romania. But precisely because Simion is far too caricatural, his benefits can only be limited.
If Donald Trump, through his biography, can generate hope for prosperity, those with even a minimal education and discernment cannot believe that George Simion, with his ridiculously populist plans, could revive Romania's economy.
So, in broad strokes, George Simion remains with his pool of voters, who will probably gain more courage to express their preference.
This partial departure from the spiral of silence, and the increase in the assumption of options for Mr. Simion, could work in favor of another candidate, for whom we have seen a desperate campaign lately, centered precisely on the savior brand - Nicolae Ciucă.
The New Rescue Mission
From the outset, in the absence of minimal political qualities, Mr. Ciucă was "branded" electorally as a hero savior. In the first stage, a savior in times of war. The soldier in service of the country, so to speak.
After a while, this issue became somewhat worn out, but Mr. Ciucă received a new rescue mission - the one who saves us from Simion in the final, meaning from an impossible choice for all those who are not supporters of Mr. Ciolacu since the first round.
That's why the credible theory was insistently launched, after the CCR decision, regarding a PSD-AUR collusion, even if not an explicit and signed agreement, at least a congruence of interests, so that the final would be Ciolacu-Simion.
But also the slightly credible theory of a future PSD-AUR governing alliance. Why slightly credible? Because associating with a sovereigntist party would bury the external image of PSD even lower than in the Dragnea era.
The delivered logic would be simple: the only way to prevent a rigged final is to vote for Nicolae Ciucă, who may not be a political or oratorical luminary, but at least he is not Simion, the lowest standard against which the liberal candidate can only come out well.
If we add a few polls that place Mr. Ciucă in second place, shoulder to shoulder with Simion, a few rumors about an imminent withdrawal in his favor of another candidate (last week there was strong talk of Mircea Geoană's abandonment), we have a recipe for intense promotion of the savior Ciucă.
Of course, the withdrawal of a candidate after the ballot paper formula has become final is a deception. All those validated by BEC and CCR will be on the ballot paper even if, God forbid, one of them dies. But who will pay attention to details when the hypothesis dominates the screens?
Mr. Ciucă tried to add another savior, even a saving locomotive, to his campaign, Mr. Ilie Bolojan - the surprise proposal, apparently even for Mr. Bolojan himself, for a prime minister in tandem with the liberal candidate.
The maneuver failed because Mr. Bolojan did not allow himself to be used and gave some explicit messages in this regard, messages in which he spoke about measures that are neither pleasant nor miraculous for Romania's salvation.
So, adding Mr. Bolojan to Ciucă's posters was postponed after the first round, meaning after the liberal candidate secures his place in the final without vampirizing Ilie Bolojan and using him to deceive the electorate.
Will the Engine Start?
But even something like the hope of Mr. Bolojan's designation probably remains attached to Mr. Ciucă. However, as I explained, the chance for Mr. Bolojan to take over PNL and become prime minister in a coalition with PSD is linked to the defeat of the current PNL leadership team, after whose removal, a period of reconstruction led by Ilie Bolojan can be discussed, incompatible with the current "bosses" at the top of PNL.
The big question is whether the savior candidate's strategy and the fear of a final with Simion will succeed in mobilizing the party for Mr. Ciucă, something that has not happened so far.
Because he is not genuinely embraced by the party, because the party does not perceive him as their own, because he is too tied through his political career to Klaus Iohannis, a huge electoral liability, Mr. Ciucă does not benefit from what should be the strong engine of a major party.
And if it doesn't start, it is very hard to believe that Mr. Ciucă has a real chance.