While Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă are struggling to find someone with chances for the Bucharest City Hall, Mircea Geoană is determined to enter the race for the presidency of Romania, even without the support of any political party.
According to political sources, the current Deputy Secretary General of NATO will start his campaign immediately after the North Atlantic Alliance summit from July 9-11, which will take place in Washington.
Mircea Geoană, 65 years old, is currently the name with the highest certainty to enroll in the race for the Cotroceni Palace.
The Parliament recently voted on a law establishing the holding of presidential elections on September 15, 2024, the first round, and the second, if necessary, on September 29.
The law has not yet been promulgated by Klaus Iohannis, although the proposal to change the presidential election, traditionally held in November - December, was supported by the Cotroceni Palace.
A Chess Game
The former PSD leader and the current NATO number two are already conducting a series of events and meetings with business representatives, citizens, and leaders from local communities and national minorities, trying to build as broad a support as possible, beyond the boundaries in which political formations operate.
"The first thing I notice from Mircea Geoană's actions is a chess move he makes against the ruling coalition, which moved the presidential elections three months earlier than usual," says sociologist Barbu Mateescu, for spotmedia.ro.
"One of the objectives of this rush is also to block Geoană from building a logistical ensemble. He needs people to gather signatures, he needs the equivalent of a party as a force to have a credible candidacy," explained the expert.
Mircea Geoană also tried in 2009 to become the President of Romania from the position of PSD leader, but he was defeated by the then head of state, Traian Băsescu, by a difference of under 100,000 votes.
In that year, Mircea Geoană was strongly supported by the trio of moguls Sorin Ovidiu Vântu, Dinu Patriciu, and Dan Voiculescu, who controlled a large part of Romania's economic resources and most of the media.
A strong polarization of public opinion and a series of mistakes made by Mircea Geoană, including two trips to Moscow and a visit to Vântu's private residence on the eve of the elections, shattered his chances, although all opinion polls virtually gave him the victory.
The Telegram and a Private Plane
"An even greater mystery is how Geoană approaches Russia. Geoană publicly criticized Băsescu for a too harsh position towards Moscow, arguing that the Romanian Government should not allow disputes in foreign policy on certain issues to hinder a dialogue on other matters…," stated in a US Embassy telegram in Bucharest, which caught the attention of the Romanian public, following its publication on the Wikileaks online platform.
Moreover, in that telegram, the US Embassy announces that the flight to Moscow took place on a private plane provided by Sorin Ovidiu Vântu.
All communication, promotion, and electoral events are carried out through the non-governmental organization "România Renaște" (Romania Reborn), which, according to data published on the official website, has been associated with 13 other NGOs.
"Our mission is to create a community of patriots and democrats in the service of the nation, who wish for Romania to achieve a historic leap in development," as stated in the organization's mission presentation.
Businesspeople, Fervent Supporters of Geoană
And this time, 15 years after the previous candidacy, Mircea Geoană aims to obtain the support of businesspeople in Romania.
Dan Șucu, the magnate of the furniture industry and owner of the Rapid football club, with an estimated wealth of around 250 million euros in 2023, according to Forbes, is one of the main promoters of Geoană's candidacy.
But besides Dan Șucu, there are also bankers, real estate investors, and industrialists who see in him a president who can defend their interests.
"After the European Parliament elections, both PSD and PNL might discover exactly what they are now realizing in Bucharest. Ciolacu is not voted by the PNL electorate, and Ciucă is not voted by the PSD electorate. And in the situation of a Geoană candidacy, advantages may appear, at least in PSD, to support him," said sociologist Barbu Mateescu.
"After the European Parliament elections, the PSD - PNL coalition will have to choose between a common candidate - an independent or a person less associated with one party or another, or to go with separate candidatures and hope not to rank third and fourth, meaning out of the second round. But here, we are already entering a quite complicated scenario," added the specialist.
Barbu Mateescu says that one reason Mircea Geoană wants to be known to run under any conditions is that, depending on political developments, there may be an opportunity to receive the support of the social democrats.
AUR, Another Party Seeking Independents
Behind the scenes, in these days, there is a strong struggle for PSD and PNL to find a way to send a candidate with chances to reach the second round of the presidential elections, but the process is tens of times more complicated than what we have witnessed for some time, when the two parties fail to propose a candidate for the Bucharest City Hall.
Barbu Mateescu argues that normally, an independent candidate has very little chance of winning elections in Romania, but now, due to "a crisis of the classic parties", more than ever, an independent candidate can find a way.
The situation will be complicated by AUR, which will eventually rely on actor Dan Puric, a name increasingly mentioned lately.
Barbu Mateescu says a candidacy of George Simion will be canceled by that of Diana Șoșoacă, considering that AUR has been caught between the classic parties and the vocal senator, who has attracted over five percent of the extremist party's supporters to her side.
An Image Issue
The road to the Cotroceni Palace is full of challenges, pitfalls, and surprises.
Mihaela Geoană, the politician's wife, is fully involved in the electoral campaign, according to political sources consulted by spotmedia.ro.
But the Geoană family has a major image problem. Ionuț Costea, Mihaela's brother, is a fugitive convict, located by Romanian authorities in Turkey.
Bringing him back "at the right time" can raise many questions and provoke discussions about the solidity of Mircea Geoană's presidential candidacy.
"After the local and European Parliament elections, the parties will be forced to adapt their strategies to the results obtained, and then some clarifications will arise," Barbu Mateescu further stated.
"But we won't know anything about Geoană's political potential because he doesn't have a party and won't be tested in these elections," added the sociologist, "his electoral potential remaining a mystery."
Inflation and tax increases have caused significant social dissatisfaction, which is evident from the political parties' deadlock.
The unnatural PSD-PNL alliance, the public's discontent and disapproval of the government have narrowed the paths for the two parties to achieve a comfortable majority in the parliamentary elections, which they boasted about when forming the coalition.