The auspices under which the negotiation of the new government majority begins, and implicitly, of the new government, are not bright, and their stakes are, as we have already pointed out, immense.
There are a few fixed points on the political map.
1. The government cannot be without PSD, the winner of the parliamentary election, without which a parliamentary majority cannot exist.
2. PSD is entitled by the score to demand the position of prime minister. It is, in fact, politically difficult for a smaller party to impose the prime minister of the larger party. This quickly becomes a prisoner of a political equation that it can only control at the price of constantly offering resignation.
3. Any of the parties in the pro-European area that might consider a coalition with extremists would end up externally finished and would head directly towards the disaster of a combination with one or more unstable, populist partners.
4. The government will have to face the extremely bad situation left by the electoral year not even truly concluded, and will be obliged to start unpopular corrections, thus assuming an inevitable political cost.
5. A coalition government with the aforementioned cost should function under pre-campaign and then presidential campaign conditions, with effects that have only been experienced recently. After 2009, this year we had a new proof that no coalition can withstand the pressure of elections as significant as the presidential ones, if they have rival candidates.
With these issues on the table, it remains to be seen how the fixed points will be connected.
Practically, governance options are PSD - PNL - UDMR - minorities in a minimal majority version, or with USR included, for a more relaxed majority.
There is a problem in choosing between them, both for PSD and USR. For the Social Democrats, there are two aspects: on the one hand, they fear a PNL-USR alliance in the government that would put them in the minority, on the other hand, the moment of recording made by Cătălin Drulă in the minister's office remains unforgettable.
For USR, those who frown upon the combination with PSD do not realize that in the Opposition with extremists, they will have no room for maneuver. Any motion will be conditioned by an association that will be forced upon them, and the voice of Simion and :osoaca will certainly be stronger through a stylistic approach that USR can no longer afford. The electorate is not willing to sympathize with the powerless, as evidenced by the percentages lost by USR in the Opposition.
Yes, it is certainly politically correct for a pro-European party to remain in the Opposition to prevent its confiscation by extremists. But except for PSD, both PNL and USR would be swallowed up, not to mention UDMR.
The second delicate issue is that of the presidential elections: date and candidates.
I am among those who believe that postponing the establishment of the calendar for the new government is not justified. The current government has full powers and could have set it already. I understand that Mr. Iohannis would like the postponement to extend until summer, which would be immense.
I want to believe that behind this decision lies the hope that the coming months will flatten the wave of support for extremists, not the desire to catch some free rides. But hope would be based on almost nothing, as long as until then a government under the sign of elections would drag on, limiting freedom of action and accentuating imbalances.
On the contrary, elections should be organized as soon as possible to then embark on a path of economic recovery and to legitimize the decision to cancel, which should not seem like a trick to prolong sinecures. Who will take unpopular measures necessary with elections looming?
This is even more crucial when it comes to the candidates. If the parties in power have different candidates, the coalition will be hard to maintain. If they are common, who should they be?
Theoretically, there could be a right-wing candidate from PNL - USR, but it will be very difficult to establish as long as a president-prime minister tandem cannot be offered, as long as the two parties cannot form a majority. At most, a guarantee could be offered that neither will abandon the other in the Opposition, which is debatable, of course.
It would be much more likely to have a common candidate from PSD - PNL, based on the result of the parliamentary elections and in which the tandem with the prime minister would be offered. Yes, there will already be a prime minister, but depending on the result of the presidential elections, the Government to be installed in the next period could be a sacrificial one.
Who will remain to be seen, but I don't think Mr. Ciolacu has any reason to desire another candidacy, and the shock of November 24th could make the party more flexible. The only question is what the party without a candidate to push for the candidate of the other party could do?