The outcome of Prime Minister Ciolacu’s consultations, supported by the two deputy prime ministers, on the presidential election date is largely known.
PNL, UDMR, USR have already announced their preference for November, only AUR is alongside PSD with the September option, already out of legal deadlines, out of fear that the time left for organization will translate into good percentages shifting from George Simion to the USR candidate.
In these conditions, most likely, Mr. Ciolacu will invoke the democratic exercise of consultations, a first for a prime minister, to package the move of the presidential elections back to winter.
It remains to be seen only if and how he will link one of the rounds with the parliamentary elections, another burning desire of the liberals.
Ciolacu, on a personal level
For Prime Minister Ciolacu, it is a dual situation. Politician Ciolacu, on a personal level, had every reason to desire this date change, but with the largest possible image gain for the liberals, to get rid of the presidential candidacy.
Let us remember that Mr. Ciolacu stated "in December I will not run for the position of president, on behalf of the PSD," so the democratic exercise of consultations and a second round in December will give him the reason to avoid the candidacy, because, isn't it so?, unlike Nicolae Ciucă, he will keep his word.
In the party, even his comrades have started to look with envy at the top positions in the PSD and the Government, which were supposed to become vacant through Mr. Ciolacu's candidacy, regardless of whether he would have won the presidential elections or not. And Mr. Ciolacu, what do you know?, does not want to vacate any of them.
The truth is that, in any rational calculation, a prime minister who runs in winter, when the acute effects of the inflationary measures during this period will start to be felt, when the first bills of the cold season will arrive, when the summer prices in the markets will be over, can only be one who wants or is pushed to politically commit suicide.
Additionally, Mr. Ciolacu can always argue that, as the past few days have shown, a presidential rivalry between the presidents of the two coalition parties can only result in its destruction, including the prospect of an easy recovery for the future legislature.
Ciolacu as prime minister – PSD president
On the other hand, the president of the largest party in the country, barely the winner of the elections, and the prime minister have suffered a significant loss of authority. A prime minister who issues an ultimatum to a minister and then accepts the defiance without consequences, lamenting for not being allowed by the party to put it into practice, diminishes his authority, regardless of how much political wisdom he tried to package the defeat with, even if it was a calculated one for the politician.
Sure, he needed the whole ultimatum staging for the party's consumption, to show them that he did everything he could, except break the coalition, to keep the elections in September. But the defeat is also for the party's consumption.
The word of a soldier has faded
It is true that things look even worse for the liberals, led by Nicolae Ciucă. They publicly announced, argued, signed the documents for the presidential elections in September, when they would have promised anything to merge the local elections with the parliamentary ones, and after finding themselves in a difficult situation, they twisted and retracted everything.
They did the same when they kicked UDMR out of the government to take over their ministries.
And all this turns out worst for Nicolae Ciucă, who doesn't have many political arguments besides the word of a soldier. It's gone! The time given for Elena Lasconi's organization is not good news for him either, but political calculation is no longer the strong point of the PNL.
The Nicu&Marcel tandem is also fading away. After last week's attacks, we notice that Prime Minister Ciolacu is conducting consultations alongside the liberal Vice Prime Minister Predoiu, not with the coalition co-leader, Nicolae Ciucă.
It remains to be seen if the PNL will participate downgraded alongside the Opposition, an absence whose message would be softened by the presence of Cătălin Predoiu to the right of Marcel Ciolacu.
The coalition will continue, because the alternative to stability does not even exist mathematically yet, but it has entered a new phase, on rough seas. But enough for President Iohannis to enjoy the summer and golf while looking for a new position.