At the end of October last year, Judge Brad Schimel from Wisconsin dressed up as „Donald Trump” for Halloween, thus showing his support for the Republican candidate who was expected to win the presidential election a few days later.
But his attachment to Trump, the fact that he supported him in the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and the $25 million invested by Elon Musk in his electoral campaign were not enough on Tuesday, when conservative Schimel was defeated by liberal judge Susan Crawford, with a 10% difference.
Transforming an electoral competition between two judges from a northern American state into a referendum on Elon Musk and Donald Trump, 70 days before the new Republican administration took office at the White House, was a joint decision of the two.
The brutal defeat will have a significant impact on the entire Trump 2 mandate, as well as on the relationship between the president and the American billionaire of South African origin.
The political action of Trump and Musk had no political logic and did not follow any strategy related to power preservation and maintaining an advantage in terms of controlling the government and the American congress.
The only explanation for the decision of the two to get involved in a marginal political confrontation was the belief that they could easily win it, without being clear on what they relied on apart from their own instincts.
A giant awakened from sleep
Weeks before Elon Musk announced his involvement in supporting Judge Schimel's campaign, he was far behind Susan Crawford, rated with a deficit ranging between 8 and 10 percent, with a fairly low voter turnout rate.
Even political enthusiasts did not pay much attention to a competition that did not have a direct impact on the balance of power between Republicans and Democrats at the national level.
It was enough for Elon Musk to land in Madison, Wisconsin, announce that he was putting millions of dollars at stake, and then stir up on his social network X, for the profile of the electoral confrontation to change and become a matter of national, even global interest.
After Musk, Donald Trump also entered the game, posting dozens of messages in support of Schimel and the billionaire on social media, hoping to change the fate of the political confrontation. He failed.
“As a girl born and raised in Chippewa Falls, I never imagined that I would be facing the richest man in the world for the justice system of Wisconsin - and I would win,” said Judge Susan Crawford after her victory in the state's Supreme Court electoral race.
Even from the winner's perplexity, the lack of strategy of Elon Musk and Trump is evident, who invested immense political resources in a minor battle of importance that they lost. The defeat now looms like a giant awakened from sleep, following in their footsteps.
The glorious era has ended
Raising the bar so high and then plummeting, Donald Trump only confirmed the rapid derailment of his second term, appearing weakened long before the first 100 days of grace spent at the White House had elapsed.
On November 4, Donald Trump and the Republicans won everything - the presidency, the Senate, the House of Representatives.
Seldom does a political party, in a functional democracy, encounter such a favorable situation.
It is an important political test, and the whole world is watching us... It is a chance for us to show that, in such a frightening moment at the national level, we still believe in democracy...
Ben Wikler, President of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin
The clear victory over the Democrats represented a blank check for the new administration, with the entire American society bowing to the new president.
From corporate leaders, television networks, publications, political and opinion leaders, celebrities, everyone acknowledged Trump's victory, giving him enormous power capital.
The most glorious political period in the entire real estate businessman's career was the 70 days between the election victory and the actual assumption of power. He was adored by the whole world, all the important people on the planet fawned over him while he played golf at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and expressed various opinions on saving America, peace in Ukraine, economic growth, and, of course, the famous tariffs.
Alongside him was always Elon Musk, the billionaire who bet $250 million on Donald Trump's victory and won.
Musk's theory, a bankrupt one
From January 20, when the Republican leader effectively began his term, the atmosphere at the White House, decisions, and political situation began to resemble those of the first term.
Statements contradicted each other. Elon Musk, through the newly established DOGE, began dismantling the American federal system, followed by thousands of layoffs, astonishment, reactions, anger from some citizens.
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Furthermore, peace in Ukraine fell apart, and the chaos at the White House culminated in an unprecedented campaign to win a position as a judge on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
“The party that controls the House of Representatives significantly controls the country that shapes the entire Western civilization,” said Elon Musk at one of the electoral events in Wisconsin where he handed out million-dollar checks to motivate Republican voters.
“I feel that this competition is an important but harder to grasp event that will affect the entire destiny of mankind. Personally, I believe it will be so,” Elon Musk added.
The billionaire justified his involvement to such an extent in the Wisconsin elections because he believed that the new liberal majority in the state's Supreme Court would redraw the electoral districts based on population and political affinities, giving Democrats the opportunity to win two additional seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections.
According to experts, such a decision is not out of the question, as there are numerous processes in the US for redrawing electoral districts based on the interests of one party or another.
A worrying trend for Trump
The bad news for Donald Trump and Elon Musk did not stop there; on the same day, elections were held in two districts in Florida to fill two positions in the House of Representatives, vacated following Mike Waltz's appointment to the government and Matt Gaetz's resignation due to corruption charges.
Both won the electoral contests in November with a difference of over 30% compared to the Democratic candidates.
However, this time the Republicans won, but their lead was halved from November until now, with victories in both cases at a difference of approximately 14 percentage points.
A collapse in political support to such an extent in a deeply Republican state shows a worrying trend for the entire party, with several commentators saying that after Tuesday, Republican lawmakers will raise their voices against Trump and Musk, especially those who competed in districts where electoral races were very close.
Less than 100 days after returning to the White House, a serious crack has appeared in Donald Trump's power globe, with his political situation set to deteriorate if he does not change his approach and the government team chosen based on loyalty rather than professionalism.