The failed invasion in Ukraine has revealed a long list of miscalculations made by Vladimir Putin, once considered a ruthless strategic genius.
These errors will define Putin’s legacy and accelerate Russia’s decline, according to Joni Askola, a Finnish geopolitical analyst and supporter of Ukraine. In an opinion article published by Kyiv Post, he examines how Putin miscalculated on all fronts in this war.
In his view, the Kremlin leader made 10 fundamental errors. Here are the arguments:
1. War initiation
Putin set his expectations too high for this war: Russia cannot achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. The war has depleted Russia militarily, economically, and diplomatically. It was a war that it could never win.
2. Underestimating Ukraine
Putin completely misinterpreted Ukraine's will to fight. He expected a collapse. Instead, Ukraine rallied, resisted, and gained global support. A catastrophic miscalculation.
3. Invasion with insufficient force
The Russian president tried to shock Ukraine and force it to surrender, but he attacked with limited force and failed. Ukraine did not yield; on the contrary, it responded with more determination. Russia did not lack the necessary forces for a quick victory, but Putin made a miscalculation.
4. Waiting 8 years to escalate to a large-scale war
If Putin desired a large-scale war, 2014–2015 would have been the ideal period. Ukraine was then more divided and less prepared. By 2022, it had become stronger, more united, and ready for battle.
5. Inventing an existential war
Putin turned this war into a battle for Russia's survival. But it is dangerous when you do not win because it leaves no room for retreat – and increases the cost of failure.
6. Turning the war into a genocide
By denying Ukraine's right to exist and using genocidal rhetoric, Putin ensured fierce resistance and long-term support from the West for Ukraine.
7. Leaving hundreds of billions of dollars and important assets abroad
Russia kept massive reserves in Western banks and lost access to them. Over 300 billion dollars in central bank assets were frozen after the invasion. A stunning self-inflicted loss in a war that requires long-term funding.
8. Sacrificing global influence
By focusing entirely on Ukraine, Putin exposed allies like Armenia, Syria, and others. Russia's power has plummeted. Even China and India are keeping their distance from Russia's war.
9. Trusting the Wagner and Prigojin mercenaries
The Wagner group assisted Moscow from the start, but the 2023 revolt humiliated Putin and exposed cracks in his control apparatus. Empowering military leaders always comes at a price.
10. Unifying and expanding NATO
Putin wanted to weaken NATO. Instead, he strengthened the North Atlantic alliance. Finland and Sweden joined NATO, defense budgets skyrocketed in Europe, and Russia's border with NATO extended.
Therefore, Putin's legacy will not be his strategic brilliance; it will be an exaggerated action. He started a war he cannot win, misjudged Ukraine, and weakened Russia.
Like many dictators before him, Vladimir Putin believed in his own myth. This will be his legacy, and he fully deserves it, concludes the Finnish analyst.
T.D.