Following phone discussions between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, analysts at Bloomberg have published three scenarios about how the war might end.
The path to peace remains very uncertain, as Putin shows no sign of willingness to compromise. However, the broad outlines of an agreement on the fate of Ukraine seem to be taking shape, writes Bloomberg.
The American publication puts forward three possibilities for ending the war:
The basic and most likely scenario
The Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia remain under Moscow's de facto control. Some territorial exchanges involving parts of Russia's Kursk region currently occupied by Ukrainian forces are possible.
Ukraine receives certain security guarantees, with most negotiations focusing on how robust these would be, although NATO membership is likely excluded.
Europe is trying to persuade the US to maintain support for Ukraine, while EU countries are strengthening their own armies.
The best scenario, "ideal" for Kiev
The United States and EU countries commit to intervene if Russia violates the terms of a peace agreement. However, Bloomberg notes that even the most ardent supporters of Ukraine fear the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia.
Instead, Kiev's allies could commit to increasing military aid to Ukraine, re-imposing or strengthening sanctions against Russia, assisting in the development of Ukraine's defense industry, and reforming its armed forces.
This scenario could pave the way for Ukraine's accession to the EU within a decade, including the strengthening of the bloc's eastern flank.
Nightmare scenario for Ukraine
In this version, Trump loses interest in Ukraine's future before signing any agreement, cuts off US military and financial aid, and leaves Europe to fend for itself.
However, this scenario is almost impossible, given that the American president has repeatedly stated he will end the war between Russia and Ukraine as quickly as possible, positioning himself last year, before taking office, as a determined peacemaker to end the conflict.
- Zelenski: Russia is preparing to send 100,000 soldiers to Belarus, possibly to attack a NATO country
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth urged Ukraine's allies on Wednesday in Brussels to recognize that the country's return to its pre-2014 borders is an "illusory objective."
Hegseth also highlighted the US position on Ukraine's NATO membership issue, which Kiev is pursuing. According to him, the US does not see this as "a realistic outcome of a negotiated agreement." Instead, "any security guarantee must be supported by European and non-European capable forces," said the American Defense Secretary.
On the same day, Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin, and then Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump later announced that negotiations to end the war were commencing.