A former German helicopter pilot says that the wars of the future will be fought by robots. He wants to convince Ukraine and Europe that they need to use autonomous weapons. The company he leads recently signed a contract with the National Ministry of Defense of Romania.
The future of warfare, as Florian Seibel sees it, involves autonomous robots capable of acting (and killing) without human control. The 44-year-old former helicopter pilot is the CEO of Quantum Systems, a company based in Munich that builds reconnaissance drones used by Ukraine in the war against Russia.
Seibel, dubbed by Politico as the "German drone lord", believes that the numerical imbalance between the armies of democratic countries and those of China and Russia will force the adoption of robots "to cope with the reduced number of soldiers."
He has founded a new company, Stark Defense, focused on building attack drones that can operate without human control. Its mission is "to disrupt the defense industry and build autonomous systems on land, in water, and on the surface," all with attack capabilities.
The entry of Seibel's company into the market coincides with a crucial context for autonomous weapons. Geopolitical tensions have escalated, Ukraine is heavily using drones, and AI technology is advancing rapidly, while the armies of the United States, China, and Russia are seeking to adopt autonomous weapons.
Current Drones Losing Advantage
Approximately 400 Quantum Systems drones are already flying in Ukraine, and another 800 will be delivered in August, according to the contract signed during a mission organized in April by German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. The company will also open a factory in Ukraine.
Russia's development of jamming techniques capable of preventing unmanned vehicles from orienting or communicating with operators has convinced Seibel that remotely controlled drones, on which Ukraine heavily relies, are now losing their advantage on the battlefield.
Expanding AI technology, capable of pattern recognition and decision-making, provides a lifeline.
Thanks to AI - and Nvidia chips - Quantum System drones can interpret the battlefield situation and identify targets without relying on GPS or human guidance. They can then fly to an unjammed location to relay Russian military targets for artillery strikes.
The final decision still rests with Ukrainian soldiers, so decisions to kill will be made by humans, not machines.
But Seibel believes that this rule will need to change: "If they can't communicate back, drones will have to take the next step: to identify targets on their own, classify them as friends or foes, and in case of hostility - to strike them."
In his view, if drones are not allowed to operate autonomously throughout the command-action chain, the cost will be higher, and we will start the next major war at a disadvantage. "If we don't want to leave our children to fight with Chinese robots in the future, we need to get to work and build our own robots," Seibel said.
Present Does Not Accept Warrior Robots
Seibel's vision clashes with the opinions of diplomats, activists, and experts who want to limit the technology, concerned that it could lead to an escalation of AI-led warfare, mass killings by pressing buttons, disasters caused by friendly fire, and algorithm-based deaths, morally unacceptable.
The Austrian government is leading efforts to develop an international treaty to ban autonomous weapons whose actions cannot be controlled or predicted by human operators.
"We don't need arms manufacturers claiming that unpredictable and unethical weapons will make Europe safer," said Anna Hehir, head of the Autonomous Weapons Program at the Future of Life Institute, to Politico.
"There was a period in history when major military powers believed they needed biological weapons to counter their adversaries' biological weapons programs. We must maintain a rational outlook when evaluating new technologies," she added.
Hehir stated that if military AI reaches superhuman precision, it would require even stronger controls over the technology to prevent these capabilities from being used for "targeted killings" based on specific characteristics.
Seibel believes that if designed correctly, autonomous weapons can reduce collateral damage by leveraging the superior analytical capabilities of artificial intelligence: an AI drone could more accurately distinguish friend from foe or civilian from combatant.
"These discussions are similar to those about autonomous driving: human nature is skeptical, and if something is new, it must be bad. I think the opposite is true: autonomous weapons can make much smarter decisions," he said.
Preparing the Ground for Future Warfare
Stark is recruiting and seeking further investments from venture capital funds, but Seibel says he can deliver products with short notice if needed, especially if Ukraine requests them. Meanwhile, he is advocating for autonomous weapons at a high level.
"Tonight, in Berlin, we are talking again with General [Carsten] Breuer, the head of the German armed forces. We tell him that the next war will be just a drone war. They are starting to act, but very slowly. Honestly, the game has not yet begun," Seibel told Politico in May.
"These systems are ultimately capable of functioning without a human. But this is not my decision: we will prepare the ground so that it is possible. But if the German government's decision is that we cannot have autonomous weapons without human control, then they will not be used," he said.
Stark Defense Receives Contract from MoND
The German company announced on June 17 that it has received a significant contract from the Ministry of Defense of Romania for the supply of advanced Vector drone systems.
The contract, valued at approximately 18.4 million euros, was finalized on May 14, 2024, and will have a duration of 36 months.
"This marks a significant step in enhancing the capabilities of the Romanian Armed Forces with state-of-the-art UAS technology. Romtehnica S.A., the procurement authority, has contracted with Quantum Systems to provide these advanced systems to the Romanian Armed Forces, which will use them in various operations in the region," according to a statement from Stark Defense.
According to the German supplier, the Vector drone capable of vertical takeoff and landing provides the MoND with a tactical reconnaissance system available on the market that meets requirements regarding range, flight time, and sensor capability.
The Vector allows precise reconnaissance and has a flight time of up to three hours. The integrated Raptor sensor combines an optical camera and an infrared camera, enabling day and night operations in all weather and environmental conditions.