Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has spent his life trying to reduce American power and influence in the Middle East. It is unlikely that he will negotiate with Washington now. Instead, he may be tempted to order the killing of as many Americans as possible to demonstrate that Iran does not back down and to increase anti-war opposition in the US.
The US President has given the Iranians a choice: to negotiate or to face devastating escalation. It is now the turn of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to make a move.
After spending his life seeking to reduce America's influence in the region, it would be unrealistic to expect him to negotiate with the US now, with B-2 bombers overhead. Instead, he is more likely to order a response, at least episodic, as stated in an analysis published by Sky News.
How will Iran retaliate?
Khamenei will seek to deter Donald Trump from launching further attacks and may consider that killing Americans is the best way to achieve this.
The Ayatollah knows that this could create a rift between Trump and his supporters, MAGA, who argue that America is being drawn into another Middle East war, endangering American lives.
There are plenty of American targets that Iran could aim for. The US has military bases throughout the Middle East, in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranians could directly attack them with drones and rockets, or they could use representatives from the region, Iran-backed militias in Iraq, or Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Additionally, Iran could threaten maritime shipping and the oil industry in the Persian Gulf. If the Gulf becomes a war zone, we should expect a severe blow to the global economy and a steep rise in oil prices.
However, all these actions would invite massive retaliation from the US. The Trump administration has made it clear.
America has deployed an impressive firepower in the region: three carrier strike groups full of fighter jets and submarines loaded with cruise missiles.
The Iranians know what awaits them if they resort to military reprisals, so they may instead opt for the kind of asymmetric warfare at which they excel. Tehran could organize, directly or through intermediaries, terrorist attacks on US and allied soil, for example in the UK.
What are Tehran's priorities?
In one way or another, it is almost certain that tension will escalate. But could it expand and draw in other countries into the conflict?
Russia and Iran have a strategic partnership agreement, but this does not compel Russia to support Tehran.
Iran is also China's closest ally in the Middle East, but Beijing may choose to ignore and watch from the sidelines.
Wars have unintended consequences, but there are valid reasons for other powers to avoid getting involved in this one for now.
Looking ahead, Iran currently has two main priorities. For the Iranian leadership, it all boils down to survival, absorbing the blows, living to fight another day, and ultimately, building the bomb, if possible, to prevent such an attack from happening again, as the source cited points out.
However, Israel is equally determined for this not to happen. One method would be regime change in Iran, but the leadership has proven resilient so far, despite increasing challenges they face.
On the other hand, Israel faces a long period of managing the threat posed by Iran. It will have to continuously monitor Iran, track signs of its missile program development, interference in the region, or revival of its nuclear project.
This could mean years of military action going forward and could be extremely costly for Israel and its supporters, the American taxpayers.
Therefore, the Iranian leadership is in a very difficult situation and may react violently, but the future will not be easy for Israel either. Moreover, there are significant risks for the United States as well.
"Mr. Trump, gambler, you may have started this war, but we will be the ones to end it"
So far, Tehran has responded at a declarative level and taken some measures after the US attack on nuclear sites:
- Condemnation: Iran's representative to the UN, Amir-Saeid Iravani, condemned the "blatant aggression of the US" and stated that all American accusations against Iran are "unfounded, legally baseless, and politically motivated."
- Uranium rescue: Most of the highly enriched uranium from the Fordow nuclear plant was moved before the US attacked, said a senior Iranian source to Reuters.
- Threat of retaliation: Iran's new army commander, General Amir Hatami, threatened the US with a "decisive response." The Iranian press released a video recording in which Iran's Supreme Leader, Amir Hatami, speaks to his fellow officers in an operations room. In the recording, he says that every time the US has committed "crimes" against Iran in the past, they "have received a decisive response, and this time will be no different." Additionally, the spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, stated that the US should expect "severe consequences," adding: "Mr. Trump, gambler, you may have started this war, but we will be the ones to end it." According to him, the US has "directly entered into war with Iran and violated Iran's sacred soil, clearly violating the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran," for which they will suffer "serious, regrettable, and unpredictable consequences." "Islamic warriors, in response to this crime, will cause them serious, regrettable, and unpredictable consequences through powerful and selective operations, with the will of Allah," he said, while also warning that Tehran will "expand its legitimate targets."
- Threat of secret cells: Before the attacks, Iran sent a message to Donald Trump through an intermediary at the G7, threatening to launch attacks by secret cells on American soil if the attack takes place, sources cited by Sky News said.
- Supreme Leader's reaction: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a single statement after the attacks, writing on X: "The Zionist enemy has made a grave mistake, committed a great crime; it must be punished and is being punished; it is being punished right now."
- Meeting with Putin: Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, will meet Vladimir Putin today. The two nations signed a strategic partnership in January.
Currently, Iran is responding militarily only to Israel. On Monday, it launched several rockets towards Jerusalem, and multiple explosions were reported in the capital. Sources cited by Al Jazeera mention strikes in at least four locations in Israel.
Israel responded with a wave of strikes on Tehran. At least three explosions, one very powerful, occurred in the Iranian capital.
Furthermore, the Israeli army carried out an attack on the Fordow nuclear site area on Monday, hit by the US yesterday. However, the operation targeted an "access road" leading to Fordow, not the facility itself, said a security source cited by the Israeli Army Broadcasting.