A Chinese company is preparing to send a cargo ship along the northern coast of Russia to Europe – a test run made possible by the melting ice and accelerating climate change, with implications for both international trade and the environment.
China is sending the container ship Istanbul Bridge on an 18-day journey from the port of Ningbo-Zhoushan – the world’s largest – to Felixstowe, UK, on September 20, accompanied by icebreakers. The goal is not a one-off journey – such things have been done before – but to establish a regular service through the Northern Sea Route, connecting multiple ports in Asia and Europe, writes Politico.
"The big picture is that the Arctic is opening up," said Malte Humpert, a senior researcher and founder of the Arctic Institute, a Washington-based think tank studying security in the Arctic region. "Twenty years ago, it was frozen. But now it's melting, presenting an opportunity, so there is interest."
For Humpert, the impact goes beyond just scheduling transport. "The Arctic is the first region where climate change is reshaping the geopolitical map. If it weren't for climate change, we wouldn't be discussing this now. Russia wouldn't be producing oil and gas in the Arctic. China wouldn't be sending container ships through the Arctic."
"It is the first major region in the world where climate change is rapidly and actively reshaping geopolitical dynamics - because of resources, access to trade routes, and because a new area suddenly becomes accessible."
Long-term Interest
For now, global trade flows through the usual straits.
"Most of global trade goes through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, Singapore," said Humpert. "But the Arctic is 40% shorter and has much less geopolitical uncertainty... so it could become an alternative route. The question is: is it really happening? And how quickly?" Humpert wonders.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at maritime consultancy Xeneta, noted that the idea is not new. "It has been debated, discussed, tested several times in recent decades," he said. China is just pushing things forward now: "They announced something similar two years ago. They did it then, and now they're trying again."
However, previous Chinese voyages were simpler. "They made point-to-point trips, from a Chinese port to Hamburg or St. Petersburg," explained Humpert. "This trip is different. They will pass through four ports in China, then through the Arctic, before reaching the UK, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Gdańsk. This resembles a normal maritime route."
Unlike occasional tramp shipping, liner services have fixed schedules between ports, regardless of whether the ships are full or not. The Chinese experiment in the Arctic is closer to this model: less of an exception, more of a rehearsal for a conventional Asia-Europe circuit.
But the scale remains small.
"What they are doing is equivalent to maybe 1% of East Asia-Northern Europe trade," Sand pointed out. The Arctic route makes sense only when demand is high and time savings matter. "No one lives in the polar region. The only way to compete is when the extra capacity and shorter times offset the higher tariffs."
For now, the route seems to be just a seasonal project. "It's not here to shake up current trade routes. But it could be one of those niche services that appear in the peak season over the next decade," said Sand.
Humpert sees the experiment as a "flag planting" for the future. "The Suez Canal has about 10,000 ships annually, so that's very, very little. But if you project out 30-40 years and the ice melts by another 30, 40, 50 percent, suddenly you have six months without ice, and the Arctic becomes a very interesting equation," he said.
"The Arctic won't replace the Suez Canal tomorrow. That's not happening. The Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, they remain. But the Arctic will become an additional route."
The fact that this experiment is possible is due to climate change. "These changes are happening faster than anyone expected, even five or ten years ago," said Humpert.
But there could also be an immediate gain: reaching Europe ahead of the wave of other Chinese carriers.
If all goes well, there could be implications for the European automotive sector as well. "For containers, you need a series of stops - one port after another. It may work for 10% of containerized transport, maybe only for 1%. No one really knows," said Humpert. "But with cars, it's different. Load 10,000 electric vehicles in China and unload them all in Rotterdam or Hamburg. Without any intermediate stops. That could be a reality in 10-15 years."
Risky Route
However, opportunity comes with major risks. The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the rest of the planet. Less ice means an easier passage but also amplifies damages when things go wrong.
The black soot from the fuels used is particularly destructive when released near snow and ice. "It causes five times more harm than if emitted elsewhere," said Andrew Dumbrille, advisor to the Clean Arctic Alliance. Additionally, the response to accidental spills in the Arctic is slow and limited, increasing the stakes. "Once oil gets into the water, every hour without intervention means huge damages," he explained.
G.P.