Paradoxically, Ciprian Ciucu’s victory (PNL) in the Bucharest mayoral elections will provide enough ammunition to the PSD camp calling for departure from the coalition.
Fear will overcome reason, and Sorin Grindeanu will likely be obliged to satisfy Olguța Vasilescu, who argues that staying in the coalition alongside USR means the party’s dissolution.
But the situation is a bit more complicated, and the Social Democrats’ exit from government could mean an acceleration of the crisis rather than salvation for the PSD.
The party's major issue is not that Daniel Băluță did not win the Bucharest mayoral seat, but that he was defeated by Anca Alexandrescu, the candidate supported by AUR.
This defeat, following two consecutive failures to have a candidate in the presidential final - Marcel Ciolacu, November 2024, and Crin Antonescu, May 2025, the latter being a candidate supported by a PSD-PNL-UDMR alliance - indicates a profound shift in the general public's perception of the party led by Grindeanu, one that emerged after decades of governance, corruption scandals, and political incompetence.
In society, during this period, a critical mass of voters has emerged who hold the PSD responsible for Romania's failures and structural problems related to the administration of public funds, infrastructure development, investments in health, and education.
At first glance, these may seem like significant issues that a large part of the public does not consider important, but a deeper investigation reveals a great disappointment with the PSD, a party perceived as deeply corrupt. The failures in the complex electoral season of 2024-2025 are hard arguments to counter.
It should not be forgotten that neither pro-European supporters nor extreme nationalists see the PSD as a political solution for the future.
Ciprian Ciucu (PNL), the new mayor of Bucharest, on the political effects of the election victory
Ilie Bolojan, being approximately 10 years older than me, I have looked at him as, maybe the word mentor is too much, but as a role model. We have always had good communication, and those who will speculate from now on that Ciprian Ciucu wants to take Ilie Bolojan's place as the president of the PNL do not know the nature and respect of our relationship and the respect I have for him…
And, in fact, this is the major issue for the Social Democrats. They have disconnected from the two major societal trends, lacking credibility both in the role of guarantors of democracy and Western culture, and in that of isolationists, religious, and conservatives.
The PSD has found itself in a political quagmire, and now, any move will only lead to a deeper sinking.
No One Can Guarantee the Party's Salvation
Sorin Grindeanu's strategy so far has been to find a strong pretext for leaving the government so that from the parliament benches, he can play the role of censoring the executive's decisions, but also position himself as a vocal critic of Ilie Bolojan and his ministers, without being constrained by being part of the coalition.
In this new role, according to PSD strategists, a relationship with AUR can quietly develop, a relationship that can attract parliamentarians, thus forming a new stable majority, a new government, this time a nationalist and anti-European one.
However, Sorin Grindeanu and a few others around him, who have been through the hell caused by Liviu Dragnea, know that such a move will generate massive mobilization of pro-European and Western political and civic forces in Romania, with major consequences for the 2028 parliamentary elections.
Traian Băsescu, former mayor of Bucharest and president of Romania
Bolojan is strengthened within the coalition. Imagine how Grindeanu would have looked if Băluță had won, I think his neck would have been so swollen that he wouldn't fit through the coalition meeting room door. Bolojan's victory was good for him…
No one, no analyst, no sociologist, or political operator can offer Sorin Grindeanu an optimal course of action that guarantees the party's salvation.
Moreover, a too close, visible, and noisy proximity between the PSD and AUR will quickly destroy the support for the latter, which has largely built itself on an anti-PSD message.
An Impossible-to-Stop Process
Even if the Taliban faction within the PSD, which urgently demands leaving the government, prevails, the path the party will take will be even more challenging than remaining in the executive.
In reality, Sorin Grindeanu is called upon to decide in what type of political movement the PSD will dissolve, in the pro-European, democratic, progressive one, or in the extremist, nationalist, and conservative one?
The process of decomposition from PCR-FSN-FDSN-PSDR-PSD is impossible to stop; the only discussion is about time and direction. The party's tradition and texture tend to indicate a nationalist-populist path, but at the party level, there are no doctrinal resources and capable leaders to impose a new trend in this direction, one that would be more appealing to this part of the public than the one represented by AUR.
Dominic Fritz, president of USR, on Cătălin Drulă's defeat
Our candidate's result was disappointing, without a doubt. We lost a battle, and we must be honest with ourselves: we could have done more. It is clear that the reformist base supporting USR also predominantly voted for Ciprian Ciucu, an incumbent mayor, and wanted someone with experience as mayor…
As already mentioned, Ciprian Ciucu's victory helps Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, not only in the sense of consolidating the reformist wing of the PNL, but also in a broader political sense, where the current prime minister continues to receive political credit from at least a portion of the Bucharest electorate, who believe that reform measures are necessary.
It should not be overlooked that the votes for Ciprian Ciucu, Cătălin Drulă, and Ana Ciceală represent 56% of the voters' preferences in Bucharest, indicating quite clearly that the pro-democratic and pro-European trend still has strong political resources in Romania.
As for President Nicușor Dan, his timid and faltering support for Cătălin Drulă, which did more harm than good, demonstrates that he still lacks the capacity to handle complicated internal political issues, failing to clarify his relationship with USR and lacking a clear and comprehensive vision of the movements and trends in Romanian society.