In theory, Beijing is interested in mediating the resolution of the conflict, but it also suits them to let Trump bear the brunt of his military campaign.
The potential role of China came into focus after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing on Tuesday for discussions with senior diplomat Wang Yi. The meeting took place as Islamabad intensified its positioning as a peace mediator in the conflict.
In a statement on "restoring peace" published on Tuesday, both countries called for an "immediate ceasefire," peace talks "as soon as possible," and a sustainable peace supported by the UN.
Additionally, the two parties request:
- securing navigation routes;
- ceasing attacks on civilians and non-military targets;
- protecting the sovereignty and security of both Iran and the Gulf states.
The initiative represents Beijing's most articulated view so far on how the conflict should be resolved, notes CNN.
But this position, broadly outlined, also raises questions about the concrete steps Beijing would take in a future peace process. How much is China willing to get involved in a conflict unfolding in a volatile region, where it strives to maintain relationships with partners on both sides?
Pakistan calls on China to get involved
Pakistani official sources told CNN that one of the things Ishaq Dar was likely to discuss during his visit to China was the possibility of Beijing acting as a guarantor to ensure a peace agreement.
Two Pakistani sources also confirmed that while a meeting between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan was ongoing in Islamabad earlier this week, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari held meetings at the Chinese embassy to discuss the current regional situation.
Iran has sent mixed signals. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on Tuesday that Tehran is ready to cease hostilities under certain conditions, mentioning "especially the necessary guarantees to prevent the reoccurrence of aggression," according to Iranian state media. At the same time, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran is prepared for "at least six months" of war.
Pakistan has offered to facilitate discussions between its neighbor Iran and the US, leveraging its position of power with stable ties to both countries.
If Beijing intervenes in peace talks, it will have two significant options: guarantor or peace mediator. What do these options entail?
China - guarantor of peace
Even though Beijing positions itself as a voice for peace and a responsible player in a conflict shaking the global economy, it may act cautiously.
"China has every reason to present its diplomatic mediation," said Tong Zhao, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It wants the world to see a contrast: while the United States generates turmoil and chaos, China positions itself as a force for de-escalation, stability, and peace."
Chinese strategists may see advantages if the US gets bogged down in Iran, which would affect its global credibility, even though Beijing is concerned about the ramifications for its export-based economy, CNN notes.
Moreover, it is highly unlikely for Beijing to accept any kind of guarantor role that would require it to contribute military resources or assurances to support peace. Additionally, China's influence on Middle East security issues is perceived as limited.
It is unclear what such an agreement would entail that would conflict with China's reluctance towards military ties, CNN mentions.
Beijing would also be extremely cautious of any agreement that would require it to monitor and sanction ceasefire violations - especially one that could put it in conflict with the US.
China has a decades-old mutual defense treaty with North Korea but has traditionally avoided alliances and called for a review of the US-led international security model.
China - peace mediator
China has followed a careful diplomatic line during the over four weeks of war in the Middle East, calling for a ceasefire and holding a series of meetings and discussions on the matter. But it has also been clear about where it believes the impetus should be to end the conflict - and its global economic ramifications.
Chinese analysts also reflect Beijing's acute awareness of the inherent challenges in resolving a conflict where there is little trust and much animosity between the two sides.
Third option: China stands aside
Bo added that it is possible for Beijing not to play a role in peace negotiations as Pakistan has already taken this position.
China played a key role in mediating a rapprochement between Iran and its long-standing rival Saudi Arabia in 2023. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping's alternative vision for international security includes Beijing as a mediator.
Relations with key actors in this conflict, Iran as well as the US, and Pakistan, could help China gain access to all sides in peace negotiations, according to Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.
But China is also assessing the implications of its diplomacy for its own priorities, especially President Donald Trump's visit to China scheduled for May and other expected future diplomatic actions between the two leaders this year.
China may attempt to play a role to show a gesture of goodwill towards the United States, but it has also been cautious about the war straining this relationship. "We do not want Iran or any other phenomenon to affect this trust," said Wang from Renmin University, referring to future diplomatic exchanges.
T.D.