The Russians are experts in „slicing the salami,” the tactic of using small actions to produce a much larger result, which otherwise would have been much more provocative.
The unprecedented drone attacks by the Russians on Poland are both a test and a warning. The way Europe and NATO will react could be crucial for the security of this continent.
The Kremlin is testing the West with a gradual but steady escalation: a British Council building and a EU facility are bombed in Kyiv; the GPS of a high-ranking EU official's plane is jammed. And now, dozens of drones in Polish airspace - all these actions by Russia are a way to check the West's response.
Each challenge, in itself, does nothing more than elicit rhetoric from the West - but new boundaries are crossed, and Russia is emboldened, as shown in an analysis published by Sky News.
Putin is good at this. He masterfully used "salami slicing" tactics in 2014, with the Crimea invasion by the "little green men," applying a series of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The delayed and confused response from the West sealed Crimea's fate.
Now he has just taken a bigger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland, notes the British television post.
Moscow tests NATO
These are, of course, a test of NATO's readiness to fulfill its obligations under Article 5. Russia has attacked a member state, believe the allies.
Will NATO trigger the "all for one, one for all" mechanism in defense of Poland and attack Russia? Unlikely.
However, the lack of a response projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plan the next one.
Expect a lot of discussions about sanctions, but also remember that the allies have failed to prevent this invasion and have failed to convince Russia to back down. The only sanctions that could be effective are the ones the US President refuses to approve, those related to Russia's oil trade.
Putin's question for the West
On the other hand, how can drones also represent a warning from Russia? Well, they pose a question. Vladimir Putin asks the West if it truly wants to get more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering sending troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire.
If it is already difficult to respond to this new obvious attack, what will happen if Russia uses hybrid tactics?
The deniable and ambiguous methods in which the Russians excel could greatly complicate the Alliance's life if it gets involved in Ukraine. Think twice before committing your troops there, warns Russia the West.
Europe could do more:
- it could stop buying Russian energy, astonishingly still importing over 20 billion euros a year, according to the latest calculation.
- it could leverage its massive economic advantage (20 times larger than Russia's, even before the war) to further fund Ukraine's defense.
If it continues to do neither of these things, we should expect more stinging slices that Putin will cut, concludes the cited analysis.
T.D.