Over the past two decades, China has intensified its investments in shipbuilding. And it has paid off: over 60% of this year’s global orders have been directed to Chinese shipyards. China builds more ships than any other country, as it can do so faster than anyone else.
„The scale is extraordinary… in many ways, impressive. China’s shipbuilding capacity is about 200 times that of the United States,” said Nick Childs, a maritime expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, to BBC.
This dominant position also applies to its military navy. The Chinese Communist Party now has the largest fleet in the world, with a total of 234 combat ships, compared to the 219 of the US Navy.
China's fleet now has more ships than the US:
*Number of ships in each fleet, including submarines
China's explosive rise has been fueled by access to the sea. The world's second-largest economy hosts seven of the top 10 busiest ports in the world, essential for global supply routes. And its coastal cities thrive due to trade.
As Beijing's ambitions have grown, so has its naval fleet - and its courage to claim greater power in the South China Sea and beyond.
Although it still holds significant advantages, the US Navy sees the gap between its capabilities and those of China narrowing and struggles to find a way to respond to this issue, "as its shipbuilding capacity has significantly declined in recent decades," says Childs.
US President Donald Trump has stated that he wants to address this situation and has signed an executive order to revitalize US shipbuilding and regain America's maritime advantage.
It will be a "very difficult task," Childs mentions.
China has the world's largest fleet
Between 2019 and 2023, the four largest shipyards in China - Dalian, Guangzhou, Jiangnan, and Hudong-Zhonghua - produced 39 warships with a combined displacement of 550,000 tons, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
This is the volume of water displaced by a ship, being the most common way to measure the size of a ship or fleet. By comparison, the Royal Navy of the United Kingdom currently has an estimated total displacement of around 399,000 tons.
While China has the largest fleet in the world in terms of the number of ships, the US fleet has a larger total tonnage and is more powerful - with much larger aircraft carriers.
But Beijing is regaining lost ground.
"There is no sign that the Chinese are slowing down. The number of ships is not, of course, the only measure of the efficiency of a military fleet, but the ability to produce and manufacture warships has been extremely impressive and could make a strategic difference," says Alexander Palmer from CSIS and the author of the report "Deciphering China's Naval Development."
There are still limits to China's naval rise. Beijing may have more ships, but it only has two operational aircraft carriers, and its navy has far fewer submarines than the US.
Some analysts argue that these are not as sophisticated as the American ones, which have a technological edge dating back to the Cold War era.
Chinese submarines are also largely built for the South China Sea, which is shallower, where a cat-and-mouse game with the US is already underway. For now, China's ability to travel far from its own coast is limited.
However, there are signs that this is changing, and rapidly.
Beijing no longer wants to be humiliated
Satellite images obtained by BBC Verify from Hainan, a Chinese island province in the South China Sea, suggest that Beijing is investing significant funds in expanding its naval bases.
The Yulin base has five new docks that appear to have been built in the past five years. China is believed to intend to group all of its largest submarines, Jin class (or Type 094), at this port. These new submarines can each carry up to 12 nuclear missiles.
Photos and videos of exercises, distributed on Chinese social networks, suggest that at least two new types of unmanned underwater drones, resembling large torpedoes, will be among the new systems on display at next week's parade.
These could allow China to conduct underwater surveillance in the depths of the water and detect other submarines or even submarine cables without risking its own naval forces.
"Much of the technology is still unproven, and the timeline of its capabilities is still unclear. The big question is how long it will take for the technology to mature," says Matthew Funaiole from CSIS's China Power Project. And that's why the US cannot overlook the threat posed by China's shipbuilding, he adds.
What the rest of the world sees as China's rise, Xi sees as its rebirth. He praised the value of a "strong navy to protect national security," invoking the 470 invasions between 1840 and 1949 that brought "indescribable suffering." As the once powerful Qing empire collapsed, China plunged into turmoil, revolutions, and civil war. And he vowed that his country would never again be "humiliated" and would not relive those "bitter memories of foreign attacks."
The civil and military sectors work hand in hand
An undeniable advantage is the dual use of shipyards. Many that support commercial production can also contribute to the production of warships for the navy.
Military and civilian shipyards work hand in hand in some places, which state media describes as "military-civil fusion," a concept that Xi has heavily promoted.
Therefore, even without powerful aircraft carriers or submarines, China's commercial fleet and its expertise in rapid shipbuilding can be essential during a crisis, he adds.
"In any protracted conflict, if you have shipyards producing new ships rapidly, that is a huge strategic advantage. Commercial ships can transport food, etc. to any conflict area. Without this, the US is in a position where it may not be able to sustain a prolonged war effort," says Funaiole.
It all comes down to a straightforward question, he says: "Who can put more assets in the water faster and easier?" The answer at this moment is: China.
But the world shouldn't worry, says Professor Hu Bo, director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University. "We have no interest in meddling in other countries' affairs, especially militarily," he adds.
His message is that China builds large ships because it can, not because it wants to conquer the world.
However, there is one island that China does not see as another country: Taiwan.
"China already has the ability to recover Taiwan," says Professor Hu Bo, "but China is not doing it because we have patience. China has never given up on the prospect of peaceful reunification. We can wait."
China and the US are ready to fight, but they don't want to
The greatest concern is that any attack on Taiwan could trigger a wider war and could involve the US. Washington is obligated by law to provide arms to help Taiwan defend itself - support unacceptable to Beijing for what is considered a separatist province that will ultimately be part of China.
Earlier this year, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China poses an "imminent" threat to Taiwan and urged Asian countries to increase defense spending and cooperate with the US to deter war.
Therefore, despite Professor Hu Bo's assurances, it is hard to ignore the fact that China's warships are starting to sail further away from the country's shores.
In February, they were seen encircling the coast of Australia for more than three weeks, where they conducted unprecedented live-fire exercises.
More recently, Chinese aircraft carriers conducted naval exercises near Japan, causing concern - although they took place in international waters, the move was unprecedented.
However, Professor Hu Bo believes that fears of a conflict between the US, whose regional allies - Japan, South Korea, and Australia - are often at odds with China, are exaggerated, as everyone knows it could be catastrophic.
"In the past three years, I think the signal is very clear that both parties do not want to fight. We are prepared for it, but we don't want to fight each other," he says.
The key question for the US and its allies is how far China's war fleet can sail and how far from its shores Beijing is prepared to venture.
"At what point they will truly be able to exert their influence further, for example, in the Indian Ocean and beyond, will be a crucial aspect to analyze," says Nick Childs. "They still have a long way to go, but they are certainly pushing their limits."
T.D.