CFA Romania analysts anticipate modest economic growth this year, but do not rule out a recession scenario, amid uncertainty, especially fiscal, stated Adrian Codirlasu, the president of the CFA Romania Association.
„As the risk of a presidential election outcome that would have led Romania towards euroscepticism has disappeared, the confidence indicator has increased significantly in May. However, the risk to the Romanian economy remains high and is mainly caused by the unsustainable budget deficit. In the context of uncertainty, especially fiscal, the economy is expected to grow modestly, with a recession scenario for this year not being excluded,” mentioned Adrian Codirlasu, according to a statement from CFR Romania.
Moreover, the Macro Economic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased significantly in May, by 11.5 points to a value of 44.9 points.
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"This situation was mainly due to a strong increase in the anticipations component of the indicator, by 15.2 points, while the current conditions component increased by 4.3 points," the statement reads.
Inflation rate and euro exchange rate
At the same time, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (June 2026) increased compared to the value recorded in March and reached 4.87%.
Regarding the euro/leu exchange rate, approximately 70% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months.
Thus, the average value of anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 5.1046 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average anticipated euro/leu exchange rate is 5.1723 lei for one euro.
According to the source cited, an additional question introduced in the survey refers to anticipations regarding Romania's downgrade to the non-investment grade ('junk') rating category.
Thus, according to the results, 74% of participants anticipate the maintenance, over the next 12 months, of Romania in the investment-grade rating category (an increase from the previous exercise), while 26% anticipate a downgrade to the non-investment grade ('junk') category.
For comparison, statistically, when an issuer's outlook is revised from 'neutral' to 'negative', one out of three cases is downgraded in the next 12 months. Also, the lower the rating (example: BBB-, BB+), the higher the risk of downgrade after a negative outlook, the statement reads.
Deficit slightly decreases
According to CFA, the forecasted state budget deficit for 2025 has slightly decreased compared to the previous exercise, to an average value of anticipations of 7.7% of GDP.
At the same time, the public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 59% over the next 12 months.
The survey is conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association, for over 14 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization aims to quantify the financial analysts' anticipations regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon.
The CFA Romania Association is the organization of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA).