Political leaders in Romania are disoriented by the brutal moves of the new American administration, with security guarantees within NATO and those of the strategic partnership being called into question these days, while a European defense strategy begins to take shape.
Their expectations (the Russians’ – ed.) revolve around the fact that at some point the US would urge European partners within NATO to withdraw the security guarantees of NATO on the alignment from 1997. So that we, those who joined after 1997, would no longer benefit from these security guarantees, entering into a negotiation context in which we would not be involved, as in Yalta, and which would evidently lead to the recognition of a Russian sphere of influence. It’s not my interpretation, it’s their statement,” stated Cristian Diaconescu, the head of the presidential chancellery, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, in a show on Antena3 on February 19.
The Romanian official’s comment came shortly after the meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between American and Russian negotiators.
Although Cristian Diaconescu later revisited his initial statement, qualifying it, it was picked up by several international press agencies without being denied by American officials.
A week after the meeting between the US and Russia in the capital of Saudi Arabia, it rather confirms what Ilie Bolojan's advisor said.
"The US vote... at the UN was a clear sign. We are on the verge of leaving NATO. Trump has already caused enormous damage to the NATO alliance," stated John Bolton, former national security advisor to Donald Trump in his first term.
Europe Checkmates Trump
On multiple channels and from various sources, it is confirmed that the collective defense system, led by the US after World War II, through NATO, is no longer functioning.
The current situation has arisen due to a single political actor, and that is Donald Trump. His decisions and the way he tries to serve Ukraine on a silver platter to Putin have caused the crisis.
Regarding defense policy, European countries will have to assume a more significant role and bear a larger share of the costs of ensuring peace in Europe. Support for Ukraine concerns both the current conflict situation and ensuring support for the ceasefire and peace negotiation perspective. Ultimately, the increase in defense budgets is a trend that cannot be avoided.
Ilie Bolojan, interim president of Romania
However, there is something different in the current context compared to Trump's previous term.
Back then, for those who remember, Canada and European states were taken by surprise by Donald Trump's vehement attack on the transatlantic alliance. No leader was prepared for such a thing. The entire European defense system depended on US weapons and the money paid by American taxpayers.
There were discussions about increasing defense budgets, but Western governments saw this process as a slow one, not affecting education and health expenses.
Trump's attack on NATO and Europe from 2016-2020 was a wake-up call, and governments began to consider changing defense policies, increasing expenditures, and developing military technologies.
But the pace was slow compared to Putin's agenda, who invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The shock caused by the biggest military conflict on European soil in the last 80 years has radically changed how both public opinion and political leaders relate to everything related to the military defense system.
Moreover, starting from the end of 2023, European decision-makers had a series of meetings to prepare in case Donald Trump returns to the White House.
For example, at the conference in Munich in February 2024, there was intense discussion about the possibility of a major change at the White House after the elections and a completely different approach by a new American administration regarding the threat of Russia and the war in Ukraine.
What happened. But this time, indeed, Europe was much more prepared and within just a month, it checkmated Donald Trump.
Independence from the US
Through the mysterious attachment of the American president to the Kremlin, as well as his inability to analyze the dynamics between countries, the complexity of international relations, and the political objectives pursued by various entities, the US has lost a significant part of its international influence, alienating its traditional partners and being viewed with suspicion if not outright hatred by enemies such as Russia, China, and Iran.
Donald Trump received clear signals in the last two days from Friedrich Merz, the new Chancellor of Germany, from Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, who made a brief visit to the White House, followed by Keith Starmer, the British Prime Minister, that Europe will swiftly try to manage without the US in all respects - economically, militarily, and politically.
"My absolute priority will be the rapid consolidation of Europe so that, step by step, we can truly achieve independence from the US," was one of the first statements by Friedrich Merz, the winner of the German elections.
This time was different; the united stance of European leaders surprised Washington.
Suddenly, Donald Trump realized that a possible US withdrawal from NATO would no longer be seen as a catastrophe in Europe, with the Union's public opinion ready to bear the costs of a common defense against Russia.
Romania Seeks New Strategic Partners
It was a catastrophic mistake for the US to vote alongside Russia and North Korea regarding the UN condemnation statement of the military aggression unleashed by Vladimir Putin.
Such positioning was not a surprise for Europeans but a huge one for the US political system.
Even though it is not yet evident, the reactions of former diplomats, former consultants from previous presidential administrations, American parliamentarians, and other representatives of the political elite have been significant, showing that Donald Trump has caused irreparable damage to the prestige of the US in the free world and a reduction in global influence, resulting in short and medium-term economic consequences.
Donald Trump crossed a red line that overnight transformed the US from a global superpower capable of rallying the largest military coalition at any time into a regional power embroiled in trade disputes with neighbors Mexico and Canada, disconnected from Europe, and with declared enemies such as China, Iran, and Russia.
In such a situation, for Romania, at least for now, the strategic partnership with the US no longer carries security guarantees, and the leaders in Bucharest must quickly consider a new system of alliances and agreements within NATO as well as with France, the UK, and Germany.