With the validation congress of the PSD, it can be considered that Mr. Crin Antonescu is a candidate in good standing for the governing coalition. However, this does not mean that he is the favorite to win the elections. He has some burdens tied to his feet.
Crin Antonescu’s speech at the congress was a big gesture not only towards the Social Democrats but also towards the somewhat permeable area to arguments from the extremist camp, to which he declared attachment to its tradition and values, from family and faith, nationalism and anti-globalism. However, with care not to completely antagonize the progressive camp, whose votes he might need in the second round.
It resulted in a strongly conservative positioning, without denying the right to the peaceful existence of all kinds of minorities.
Crin Antonescu's speech did not contain personal attacks on other candidates, identified through rhetorical figures as "Petrache Lupu with geopolitical ambitions" or through the Trumpist cap.
The speech was about himself as a potential president, about the historically declared party whose support he was seeking and whose wounded pride he was massaging by the mere fact that it found itself without its own candidate for the first time after '89. But it was also about the extended bridges to various recoverable or at least non-antagonistic electoral segments, as I mentioned.
An intelligent approach, recommended to the rest of the candidates as well, because to a large extent, Călin Georgescu has grown from the fact that since November 24, he has always been at the center of any political discourse. Alone against all, the one who scared the system. This is how legends are created.
In a way, Crin Antonescu threw Georgescu into the zone of the historical accident that must be treated as such, without reducing an entire presidential project to him.
Mr. Antonescu defines himself as a strong president, which implies not only strength but also work, involvement, exposure. The irony of history is that the last president of this kind of Romania was the great political adversary of Mr. Antonescu, namely Traian Băsescu.
And it is also ironic that Mr. Antonescu must defend, sincerely, I do not doubt, Romania's Euro-Atlantic membership, put in real danger not so much by Mr. Georgescu himself, but by a neurotic current that propelled him. It is precisely Mr. Antonescu, who in 2012, not through the suspension of President Băsescu in itself, but through the abusive procedural way in which it was done, caused a hiccup in Romania's Euro-Atlantic relations.
Cristian Tudor Popescu observes that Mr. Antonescu has changed since then. It remains to be seen from much more than just a speech.
But all of the above are far from sufficient to remove the problems in Mr. Antonescu's candidacy and to answer all the questions.
1. Candidate of the system. Even though, realistically speaking, he has not been at the top of politics for 10 years, hence not part of decisions, good or bad, the association with the governing parties places their account on him.
Because all the movement around Mr. Georgescu is primarily anti-system, where the system is composed of parties and institutions filled with people from parties. That is why Georgescu's democratically insane promise that parties will disappear was successful.
In a way, Mr. Antonescu has a chance only if he manages to re-legitimize the system itself, which is extremely difficult.
2. Real connection with the electorate, especially the PSD electorate. He is not one of them, the party is traumatized by the result of November 24 and now by the fact that it does not have its own candidate.
It will take a lot of work, a lot of mobility, a lot of real humility from Mr. Antonescu to reach the base of the PSD and mobilize it to vote. And he will not be able to do it with rational arguments about the EU and NATO, but exclusively with emotion. Does he have this ability beyond the skill of a sharp foil, often with a poisoned tip, which provokes irritation or laughter? But emotion, both collective and in direct relationships in the territory? Can he do that?
It is even more complicated considering that there are two potential areas of vote loss. From the PSD to, especially, Călin Georgescu and a little, but any percentage will count, to Victor Ponta, and from the PNL to Nicușor Dan.
3. Betrayals. I have no doubt about the seriousness of Mr. Ilie Bolojan and Kelemen Hunor. But things are complicated at the PSD because Marcel Ciolacu is fighting his own battle for political survival, which is only possible if he remains prime minister.
As noted by Dan Tăpălagă, it seems that Marcel Ciolacu is playing with two candidates - George Simion and Nicușor Dan, as safety nets. The relationship with Victor Ponta is also interesting, as Ponta is making all sorts of acrobatics, Ciolacu looks at him badly, but he kept him as an honorary advisor until today.
Yes, it is true that Mr. Ponta is the head of the economic committee in the Chamber of Deputies and from there he can do some dirty work during the budget debate. But he got there and is kept there with the agreement of the PSD president, of course. Why?
So, how many sides is Marcel Ciolacu playing?