As complicated as the structure of the future parliament will be, as limited, paradoxically, are the governance solutions. We have a pro-European bloc of 55% and an extremist bloc of 32%, and the redistribution of votes from those remaining below the threshold will be proportional.
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Theoretically, a sovereigntist party can betray the bloc, and a pro-European party or more can make a pact with the devil for governance, but such a pact would mean total external discrediting, with consequences of maximum severity, including for governance.
A minority government would be madness, a political suicide for whoever accepts it and with no chance of achieving anything other than chaos.
Theoretically, a majority of PSD - PNL - UDMR minorities would be possible, just over 50% after redistribution, with USR in Opposition. But it would be a fragile majority, and USR would be too weak alone in an opposition dominated by extremists to make a substantial impact.
So the only realistic solution is a national unity government that includes all non-extremist political forces, more or less pro-European, namely PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR minorities. Those who refuse, as irresponsibly proposed by someone who was unable to create liberal lists for the diaspora, will be demonized for pushing the country into the arms of extremism.
Such a broad coalition of forces that generally do not agree even if the snow is white and cold or not, will be a nightmare, will not achieve any reform, at best we can hope for a decent administration of the country.
The saving solution would be not to get lost in ideological details but to establish by consensus a few key areas and basic measures, for example - taxation, healthcare, education, as proposed in an interview during the presidential campaign for SpotMedia.ro by Kelemen Hunor.
The extremists in Opposition will be like fish in water and will exploit every failure or unpopular measure. The only luck is that AUR, SOS, and POT are competitors, with divergent interests, Simion leans towards mainstream and legitimization following Meloni's model, Şoşoacă bets on radicalization, it seems they hate each other personally. So they will erode not only the Power but also each other.
It is also one of the reasons why, even with Georgescu at Cotroceni, the extremists will not push for entry into government, possible only as minorities and in which they would fall apart very quickly.
Certainly, in such a national unity formula, PSD will claim the leadership of the government because they have given up on the presidency. Theoretically, of course, the new president, whoever he may be, can make another proposal, but in the dynamics of a government, especially such a complicated one, it is difficult for the prime minister of a small party to assert himself.
Who should be the PSD prime minister? An interesting question. Probably Marcel Ciolacu will fight for survival counting on the fact that the experienced party, which has just narrowly escaped the ballistic missile, will not engage in settling scores at a critical moment, risking thus losing the position of prime minister.
On the other hand, Marcel Ciolacu's persona, with all the baggage accumulated in governance and in the campaign, as a loser even from the first round, could greatly hinder the mission of forming a new government. But changing the prime minister's person would trigger the internal power struggle in PSD, with effects even on the stability of a government that does not promise to be stable.
We will soon see if Marcel Ciolacu, still prime minister, will make the first moves to manifest himself as the de facto leader of the pro-European zone.
In addition, a few clarifications need to be made upon a first reading of the results:
1. The effects of the parliamentary vote on the second round of the presidential elections remain to be analyzed after the decision of the Constitutional Court this evening.
The fact is that the difference between the extremists' vote two Sundays ago, 36%, and that of December 1st, 32%, shows that those who can be suspected of an uninformed choice are very few, about 4 percent.
People knew what they were voting for. The question is whether that difference is made up of those misled or those from the PSD and PNL bases who opted from the start for Georgescu.
2. Ilie Bolojan saved his party in a week with a tremendous effort. It was the fantastic chance of a PNL that would otherwise have collapsed to a single-digit percentage and should be aware of this.
3. UDMR not only crossed the threshold but achieved 6.5% on a huge voter turnout, and under conditions where I don't think anyone can suspect that any votes were donated. This means not only that the Hungarians mobilized extremely well, as was visible in the turnouts in Harghita - Covasna, but also that there were enough Romanians who chose the Hungarian party.