The only one among those who, theoretically, have a chance to win the presidency of Romania, whose candidacy is not yet definitively officialized, is Nicolae Ciucă. The final aspect should be formalized at the end of this week, during a National Council meeting convened precisely for the designation of the liberal candidate for the presidential elections.
Especially after Crin Antonescu’s attacks on Mr. Ciucă’s candidacy, speculations about a possible change of candidate have intensified, a kind of last-minute surprise move, a Biden-Harris type of maneuver.
The rumors are based on a certain fact. Nicolae Ciucă is failing to gain momentum in the campaign. Beyond the cosmetized polls thrown on the market by PSD and PNL, Mr. Ciucă's electoral situation is serious.
He is somewhere in fourth or fifth place, with no growth potential.
Why is Nicolae Ciucă not gaining ground?
The problem stems from the fact that, evidently, Mr. Ciucă is totally inadequate for politics and does not desire either politics or candidacy. And in his own book, he almost explicitly acknowledges this.
He was suddenly taken from the Army and placed at the Ministry of Defense, after which he was sent to lead the government and the PNL party.
And the electorate, even though it detests politicking and demagogy, has gained an understanding over the past 30 years that politics is done by politicians, just as bread is made by bakers and pipes are fixed by plumbers.
So, they look for the characteristics of a politician in a candidate. Those who do not possess them are deemed inadequate. You don't ask a plumber to bake bread, and you don't ask a baker to fix the pipes in the bathroom.
Mr. Ciucă's inadequacy also includes a lack of charisma, slow reaction in speech, and, in general, rhetorical anti-talent.
To these aspects, an equally inadequate campaign has been added, which managed to destroy what should have been Mr. Ciucă's strong electoral points through overly thick strokes and at times ridiculous profiling.
The profiling as a legendary military hero exposed by Recorder and, especially, the book with a changed title were epic errors. Sure, creating a scandal can be a strategy to increase public interest, but not when the scandal is about public funds, and the promoted product is of extremely modest quality, so curiosity quickly deflates into disappointment.
All in all, Mr. Ciucă's major problem is not his current score, but the lack of growth potential.
The PNL is counting on a mobilization of the party and liberal electorate similar to that of June 9. A very risky bet as long as the liberal electorate is not very disciplined, as shown on June 9 in Bucharest when it could reject the party's candidate if not satisfied, and the mobilization and interest from the mayoral election cannot be replicated in any other election if the candidate himself fails to mobilize. And Mr. Ciucă is failing.
Furthermore, Mr. Ciucă cannot rely on the anti-PSD vote either. The current quibbles of the liberals who have been governing alongside PSD for 3 years and are even preparing a new alliance are hard to take seriously.
The Nicu&Marcel tandem has deprived Mr. Ciucă of any chance to credibly position himself as anti-PSD.
Now, Mircea Geoană, Elena Lasconi, and Cristian Diaconescu are all dipping into his potential electorate, so the risk for Mr. Ciucă of not reaching the second round is immense. And from here, a substantial setback for the PNL in the parliamentary elections, the following Sunday.
In these conditions, a last-minute change of candidate would seem the logical solution for the liberals. However, this would require them to have an alternative candidate who is willing to assume the candidacy, meaning to be sure of the full party's support, which is not the case.
Moreover, such a change would automatically call into question the leadership of the PNL. Triggering such a power struggle so close to the elections is suicidal for any party.
In these circumstances, it is highly unlikely that the liberals will not validate Mr. Ciucă. It is too late, and they have no one to replace him.
Why Would PSD Struggle?
PNL's only chance to see its candidate in the final is, as previously mentioned, by mobilizing PSD. Because PSD still needs a coalition with PNL, regardless of whether Marcel Ciolacu wins the presidential elections or not.
A final between the two, as a president - prime minister tandem, would be the ideal solution for both parties: this is who we are, one will be president, the other prime minister, you choose who gets what role.
If he wins, and Nicolae Ciucă is the frontrunner, Mr. Ciolacu has already informed the Social Democrats not to expect to have the prime minister position as well, so they need a comfortable liberal prime minister, and who could be more comfortable than Nicolae Ciucă?
If Marcel Ciolacu loses, it's better to lose to Nicolae Ciucă, who would certainly respect the stability commandment, and Marcel Ciolacu would remain prime minister.
Moreover, if Nicolae Ciucă has a lamentable score, dragging down the PNL in the parliamentary elections and starting a major internal clash within the party, the future coalition could become problematic, and PSD could have great difficulties in forming a majority.
We already see that Mr. Ciolacu is trying to calm down the party, publicly stating that he does not like the attacks on Mr. Ciucă. It's one thing to empower him and share the stage together, another to seriously go against him.
PSD's mission to save soldier Ciucă once again this year is not easy at all, as the social democrats are not in an excellent position either.
Their electorate is certainly much more disciplined, but Marcel Ciolacu is not a driving force, Mircea Geoană also draws from the PSD area, so who knows what room for generosity is left. And Nicolae Ciucă would need not just a few pinches here and there, but immense generosity.
Therefore, the big question is how can soldier Ciucă be saved once again?