AUR emerges as the favorite in a potential race for the parliamentary elections, with 38.1% of the voting intentions.
PSD drops to 17.4%, PNL slightly rises to 16%, while USR fails to capitalize on the proximity to President Nicușor Dan, according to the Informat.ro Barometer – INSCOP Research.
AUR, clear leader in voter preferences
According to the survey conducted by INSCOP Research from May 26-30, 2025, AUR ranks first in the voting intention for the parliamentary elections. If the parliamentary elections were to take place on Sunday, 38.1% of voters would vote for AUR.
This score is almost identical to the one obtained by George Simion in the first round of the presidential elections and confirms the party's consolidation as the main political opposition force.
PSD loses ground after electoral failures
PSD is rated at 17.4%, a decrease compared to previous months.
INSCOP Director, Remus Ștefureac, explains this decline through successive electoral failures, especially in the presidential elections, where the PSD candidate was surpassed by both George Simion and Nicușor Dan. Scoring below the 20% threshold fuels scenarios regarding a leadership crisis within the party.
PNL timidly rises, with Bolojan at the helm
PNL reaches 16% in voting intentions, marking a slight comeback due to Ilie Bolojan taking the lead of the party. Considered one of the most credible political leaders of the moment, alongside President Nicușor Dan, Bolojan seems to bring back a lost degree of trust to the Liberals in recent years. However, the difference from AUR remains significant.
USR stagnates
USR obtains 12.2% of the votes expressed by decided voters, a score close to the recent elections.
Although benefiting from a natural association with President Nicușor Dan, the party fails to capitalize electorally on this proximity.
The presence of new parties, such as SENS (3.3%) or POT (3.2%), could further fragment the reformist electorate.
Potential fragile majority for traditional parties
Combining the scores of PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR (4.5%), the traditional parties that could form a governmental coalition gather a total of 50% of the votes.
On the other hand, the rest of the parliamentary opposition parties (including AUR) reach around 44%, according to INSCOP estimates. Non-parliamentary parties and independent candidates gather the remaining 6%.
When asked how certain they are to vote, 74.2% of Romanians chose a score of 10 out of 10. Only 11.5% indicated that they definitely will not vote, suggesting a high interest in the parliamentary election.
Mobilization may also be influenced by the tense context of the presidential campaign and the increasingly polarized political scene.
AUR grows with mobilization
Relative to the entire sample, AUR is rated at 32.2%. The percentage rises to 38.1% among those declaring a political preference and to 38.3% among those who affirm they will definitely vote.
Meanwhile, PSD and PNL slightly decrease depending on the mobilization scenario, and USR slightly rises to 13.3% among those who declare they will go to the polls.