Former independent candidate Călin Georgescu is projected to obtain 38% in the first round of the presidential elections in Romania if they were to take place next Sunday.
He would be followed by Crin Antonescu (PNL, PSD, UDMR) with 25%, Nicușor Dan (independent) – 17%, George Simion (AUR) and Elena Lasconi (USR) – both at 6%, Diana Șoșoacă (SOS) – 5%, another candidate – 3%, according to a survey conducted by Avangarde between January 10 and 16, 2025.
The sociological research also presents scenarios for the second round of the presidential elections.
In this regard, if the second round of the presidential elections were to feature Călin Georgescu and Crin Antonescu, Georgescu would lead with 39%, while Antonescu would obtain 38%.
In the situation where Călin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi would face off in the second round, Georgescu would obtain 44%, while Lasconi - 31%.
In the showdown in the second round between Călin Georgescu and Nicușor Dan, Georgescu would have 43%, and Nicușor Dan - 32%.
Trust in Political Personalities
At the same time, the survey also presents the trust or lack of trust that Romanians have in 17 political personalities in the country.
In the first place is Călin Georgescu, who has a trust rate of 51% among Romanians, while 46% said they do not trust him, and 3% did not respond.
The second most trusted politician among those surveyed is the leader of the liberals, Ilie Bolojan, with a 44% trust rate, with 50% of respondents stating, however, that they do not trust him, and 6% did not respond.
Crin Antonescu has a trust rate of 39%, being tied with Nicușor Dan, but Antonescu's lack of trust is at 55%, compared to Nicușor Dan with 58%.
George Simion has a trust rate of 38%, while 60% of those asked stated that they do not trust. Following them are Daniel David and Ioan Aurel Pop with a trust rate of 37% and 36%, respectively, and a lack of trust of 42% for both.
Victor Ponta and Elena Lasoni are tied in terms of trust, with 34%, while in terms of lack of trust, Ponta has 63% and Lasconi 64%.
The Prime Minister and leader of the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu, is in 11th place, with 34% of respondents saying they trust him, while 65% do not trust him.
The survey also refers to Romanians' perception of the cancellation of the first round of the presidential elections in Romania, with 42% considering it a good decision, 48% a wrong decision, while 10% do not know or did not respond.
According to the data, 54% of Romanians believe that the elections were rigged, 34% do not believe this, and 12% do not know or did not respond. 46% of respondents believe there was Russian influence in the electoral process of the canceled presidential elections in Romania, 36% do not believe this, and 18% cannot assess.
The Avangarde survey was conducted between January 10 and 16, 2025, on a sample of 1,354 adult participants, through telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 2.6%, with a confidence level of 95%.