As expected, not so much due to the forced principle of the Constitutional Court, which few people care about in this country, but rather due to the polarizing force of the main character, the withdrawal of Diana Șoșoacă from the presidential race has created a political uproar of proportions that largely change the dynamics of this presidential campaign.
PSD - A Determined Step on the Rake's Teeth
The main blow is suffered by PSD, from which, apparently, through the judges proposed by it, the madness originated.
It is hard to ignore the fact that 4 of the fragile majority of 5 magistrates in the Constitutional Court were proposed by PSD, and a leading PSD member announced on Wednesday with a superior smile on his face the withdrawal of Ms. Șoșoacă from the race, which occurred on Saturday.
If there was a calculation, it was shockingly poor precisely because the suspect is evident. And with the suspect being the main party in Romania, with the candidate leading in the polls and a prime minister on top of that, on the brink of elections, no one could miss the opportunity to use the coincidences we were talking about earlier.
Mr. Ciolacu tried to show moderate dissatisfaction and proposed a principled reform starting from the idea that "the current procedure turns the Constitutional Court into a court that does not offer the party concerned the right to defense or appeal."
Correct, with two amendments: I fail to see why this was not considered after the ECHR decision in the Kovesi case, which precisely spoke about the lack of a fair trial with an avenue for appeal. And I am extremely curious about how a project that limits the power that the Court has just arrogated to itself will pass through the Constitutional Court.
But beyond this very pale response, it is evident that PSD is on the defensive, hit also by the Vicol scandal (that's what happens when you defy evidence and public opinion and promote such shady characters). The major risk is not so much losing the electorate, but repeating the presidential electoral scenario of the last 20 years: the annoyance of the non-PSD electorate, which could come massively to the polls.
PNL Is by No Means a Beneficiary, Although It Tries Hard
And it cannot benefit from the wave of "jump against PSD totalitarianism" for several reasons:
- It does not depart from governance, meaning it tries to keep the electoral soul in the anti-PSD paradise and the bacon in the government attic with PSD. It doesn't work, and Valeriu Stoica has told them so. The stability thesis no longer holds, as such a government, with the declared coalition broken, is anything but stable.
- It has had no problem all these years with the "totalitarianism" of PSD, a partner with the help of which it has ticked off whatever advantages it wanted, such as merging the elections, and appointed whoever it wanted to cushy positions.
- It's strange to break the coalition over a decision of the Constitutional Court made by 5 judges proposed by PSD, but at least one of them, Bogdan Licu, was also voted for by PNL in exchange for PSD's support for Ms. Iuliana Scântei. Without Bogdan Licu, a favorite of Mr. Iohannis as well, there would have been no majority in the Constitutional Court.
- Taking advantage, the liberals, for example, the spokesperson Stroe, were talking about "our judge" and "PSD's judges" at the Constitutional Court. So, do they openly assume that each party has a judge there? If it's "theirs," does Ms. Scântei take orders from PNL? If they assume the precariousness of the Constitutional Court, why haven't they been bothered by it until now? How much credibility does the Constitutional Court still have even in the eyes of PNL?
- Since their principled position is so fragile, it is hard to believe that the real reason for the extreme annoyance is the one invoked. Most likely, it seems they wanted to exploit an advantageous situation electorally and pay the price for Marcel Ciolacu's change of mind regarding the Iohannis - senator law (not even the main one, but under the pressure of public annoyance). When the liberals were caught off guard back then, now it's their turn to do the same.
George Simion Has Little Chance of Capitalizing on Diana Șoșoacă's Withdrawal from the Race
Her electorate is radicalized and cannot identify with a Simion who, in search of external validation and the status of a socially acceptable partner, has made many concessions and compromises compared to his initial positions.
Even within the party, he is reproached for surrendering and destroying the party's identity, and Diana Șoșoacă does not exempt him from being labeled a traitor.
For USR and, especially, for Elena Lasconi, this is a good moment.
They might be the main beneficiaries of the moment, as they have positioned themselves correctly and have not limited themselves to complaints.
The vote of no confidence motion is aggressive and puts great pressure on the credibility of PNL.
This does not necessarily mean that Ms. Lasconi will receive an influx of support from the previous sympathizers of other candidates, although at least ideologically she has no difficulty resonating with conservatives and nationalists. Especially because she can attract undecided voters through proper profiling.
Diana Șoșoacă's Boon
As for Diana Șoșoacă herself, all this scandal is an unexpected boon for her.
Obviously, winning the presidential election was out of the question, but she ran to transfer the capital obtained from the visibility on the presidential stage to her party in the parliamentary elections.
With this scandal, she has gained visibility and victimization beyond her wildest dreams. And, being extremely pragmatic, uninhibited, and far from lazy, she continues to capitalize on the gift received, so it is not at all excluded that she may have received a few crucial percentage points.
However, it remains to be seen if she will not be excluded from the parliamentary elections as well. Somehow, the Constitutional Court seems to be inviting the judiciary to do so this time, within a genuine process, following Ms. Șoșoacă's latest statements, it might even be possible and fair.
But the scandal will become so huge that the consequences would be entirely unpredictable.
Above all this madness, with an unconstitutional atrocity and the establishment of absolute abuse - restricting rights without a fair trial, defense, or appeal - the most deafening is still the silence of the President of Romania, crestfallen after missing out on a Senate candidacy and ostentatiously busy squeezing out every last drop of luxury and privileges in these remaining months, all at the expense of the people.