The most recent INSCOP poll confirms what we were already anticipating a few days ago: this year’s presidential election’s major battle seems to be shaping up in the first round, based on the current candidates’ picture.
If Mircea Geoană, leading in voting intention, manages to advance to the second round, he will decisively defeat any other candidate in the final.
And it is politically logical for it to be so. An independent candidate, as Mr. Geoană has built his image, captures the votes of the voters whose favorite candidate was eliminated in the first round much more easily.
The Liberals would vote for him much more easily than for Marcel Ciolacu, the Social Democrats much more easily than for Nicolae Ciucă, supporters of Cătălin Drulă would not prefer the PSD or PNL presidents. And if the opponent were, unlikely, it's true, George Simion, I don't even think there would be anything to debate, the score could be historic.
Mircea Geoană's Challenge
But the first round has the peculiarity of being much more than a party apparatus confrontation. Their mobilization makes a major difference in terms of the result. This is what PNL and PSD are counting on. And I have no doubt that the party apparatuses will be fully engaged to the maximum extent possible, down to the last mayor and councilor, to propel their candidate into the final round.
Currently, Mircea Geoană does not have that. On the other hand, he is not exactly a novice in politics, having gone through a presidential campaign before, so it is presumed that he understands this vulnerability and is likely working on it. I understand that he is.
We will see if he will succeed in having a political structure behind him by the elections on which he can rely organizationally and for mobilization in the first round.
If he fails to do so, despite all the percentages in the polls, the risk of failure is significant. If he does, he could be hard to stop.
One of the reasons for moving the elections to September seems to have been to shorten the time Mircea Geoană has for organization. But campaigning in August and voting in September, when not everyone has returned from vacations and when there is still a lot of work in gardens and orchards in the countryside, is not the ideal context for maximum mobilization.
Returning to presidential elections close to the parliamentary ones in November-December would have the advantage for the major parties of concentrating mobilization efforts for both. Marcel Ciolacu has not sworn on television that he will not move them again, but backstage information indicates that the scenario is still under analysis.
Ciolacu Lives Politically Dangerously
If Mircea Geoană remains out of the final, Marcel Ciolacu seems to be the favorite against any other opponent, according to INSCOP.
But his situation is the most vulnerable simply because he is the Prime Minister, meaning the most exposed to erosion among all candidates.
Without even considering the hypothesis of a black swan event that could stir up a wave of negative emotion against the government. The prime minister always pays the price.
The fact remains that so far no politician has managed to win the presidential elections from the position of prime minister. Adrian Năstase, Victor Ponta, Mugur Isărescu have failed.
So, in addition to the risk of missing the final, for Marcel Ciolacu, the higher probability is a decline. And Nicolae Ciucă is in an intense image campaign, combined with a clear distancing from everything that could be electorally damaging, leaving Marcel Ciolacu in a difficult position. Just as the PSD president did when Mr. Ciucă was leading the government.
It is a reason why, clearly, Marcel Ciolacu is not eager to run for president this year, but the party pressure is very high, and he may not be able to escape it, even though it would be most advantageous for him to remain prime minister with a strong majority behind him.
Furthermore, Mr. Ciolacu continues to work on creating alternative options to Nicolae Ciucă to consolidate the majority with the PNL after the elections.
The fact is that, for the first time, with only two and a half months before the start of the electoral campaign, we do not even have an officially assumed candidate from the major parties.
What June 9 Cannot Change
Waiting for the results of June 9 is mentioned.
Of course, they will be extremely politically relevant, but from the perspective of the major PSD and PNL candidates, there is not much that can be influenced. If he had remained the sole candidate for the Mayor of the Capital, it would have been a test for a common candidacy, possibly politically independent, for the presidential elections, but under current conditions, there is not much to test.
Could they return to a joint PSD-PNL candidacy? Theoretically, yes, of course. Politically, it will be very difficult after the episode in Bucharest.
Moreover, the key point of the discussion remains: who should it be?
Evidently, PNL does not want to give up Nicolae Ciucă because they need this affirmation of identity in view of the parliamentary elections, and I don't see in what conditions PSD could realistically support the president of another party.
In addition, why wouldn't the supporters of the party without a candidate rather go for Mircea Geoană?