The purpose of a motion of no confidence at this moment can only be the total destabilization of Romania before the presidential elections. The fall of Marcel Ciolacu from the position of prime minister, who is barely holding on as it is, would have pushed PSD into a huge turmoil, especially if the necessary betraying votes for the success of the motion would have come from some Social Democrats.
Since PSD does not currently have a prominent leader capable of taking over the party post-Ciolacu, as in the Ponta-Dragnea episode, for example, since the party is deeply traumatized after the electoral shock last fall, including the setback in the parliamentary elections, since there is a huge fracture between the party base and its leaders, not just Ciolacu, destabilization, if not even the breakup of PSD, was very likely, which would have led to the breakup of the coalition and the impossibility for the pro-Europeans to form a majority government.
And if, in the created chaos, Victor Ponta had managed to break away a group of Social Democrats, depending on their number, we could have ended up with an extremist majority.
The effects of all kinds, including economic ones, in this terrible context, for a Romania with an interim president, in the electoral period and in a governmental crisis, would have been incalculable, as well as the advantage thus created for extremists who thrive on chaos.
The signatures already existed, but for everything to depend on a few traitors, USR was needed. Out of the 233 votes for the government's fall, AUR, SOS, and POT only have 111. With USR, they would have 215. There are 7 unaffiliated members, deserted from SOS and POT, if they were to vote for the motion, we would reach 222. Still insufficient, but closer and with more pressure on the traitors.
USR hesitated because the temptation to overthrow Ciolacu was great and understandable. But, in the end, it seems to have understood that there is no glory in being the useful idiot of extremists and contributing to throwing the country into chaos.
Through the voices of Cristian Ghinea and Ionuț Moșteanu, the party announced that it will not sign or vote for any motion now, but after the presidential elections, when the political game could be reset.
In these conditions, George Simion quickly changed course and abandoned the motion project supposedly awaiting the support of the entire opposition. And why would you ask USR for the maximal gesture, not just to vote, but also to sign, meaning a total association with extremists, which you know well has backfired on the fall of the Cîțu government?
The leader of AUR may have understood, after all, that a failed motion now, on the one hand, would send a message of weakness, which is contraindicated in the electoral campaign, and on the other hand, would waste the opposition's only chance in a parliamentary session. Until autumn, another motion would only be possible if the government were to take responsibility.
And if Mr. Simion is indeed counting on the victory of an isolationist on May 18 and the reshaping of the entire political scene, he has every interest in keeping this silver bullet untouched for a truly opportune moment. This could be an explanation for why even POT, Călin Georgescu's party, did not sign.
But which isolationist? For now, Mr. Simion has sworn loyalty to Călin Georgescu. He announced that AUR is gathering signatures, without specifying for whom, which means de facto abandoning the hope of reaching the second round.
Moreover, the re-entry of Diana Șoșoacă into the presidential race, which is not impossible for her to be allowed to run, could have significant effects on Mr. Georgescu's score, as they share a segment of the electorate.
On the other hand, the simple calculation of the single bullet was accessible to Mr. Simion, not exactly a novice in politics, even before announcing the submission of the motion. Therefore, he is the only one who explains Simion's turn, about which Diana Șoșoacă is already crying betrayal.
Remains to be seen, but there is a definite context.
George Simion is the only extremist with real external connections. He is the vice president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, led by Ms. Meloni until last December.
And Ms. Meloni seems to have been much less enthusiastic about the new sheriff in Washington since Trump's inauguration.
Ms. Meloni, who was in Paris on Monday at the emergency meeting convened by Mr. Macron, talks about the need for a single European command center to respond to Donald Trump. It's hard to say to what extent she would be delighted for Mr. Simion to force Romania into chaos. Romania used by JD Vance as a pretext to attack European democracy.