The main difference between a celebration and a commemoration is the presence of the celebrated one.
The striking absence of Călin Georgescu from the events organized on his day, a form of personality cult that we haven’t seen since the Ceaușescu era, has turned the desired celebration into the commemoration of a political dead, kept in the window because succession has not been attributed, there is a big fight over it, and the „deceased” did not leave a political testament.
Sure, this shouldn't have stopped Mr. Georgescu from coming alongside his most passionate supporters. But, as the most realistic among them have already understood, the subject of adoration is horrified by adorers.
Mr. Georgescu doesn't feel comfortable among people, rarely descends to the commoners, flanked by mercenaries, often wears grimaces of discomfort, and leaves as quickly as he can. Now, with no direct interest anymore, obviously there is no reason to subject himself to the ordeal.
This is especially true as public support for his reign is below expectations. The invalidation of his candidacy did not lead to the much-desired massive protests, with millions of people on the streets. And a few thousand don't make a difference. There wasn't a big crowd even at the political commemoration.
I've said before, beyond the metaphors and symbols in the messages he occasionally sends from self-imposed isolation, because he is not bound by judicial control, for Mr. Georgescu, the main issue has become not political survival, but survival in freedom.
The criminal files targeting him are not simple, information about the illicit financing of the campaign is accumulating in other files, and on popular support, beyond the complaints, he cannot rely.
The Inheritance Battle
Two main candidates are fighting over Mr. Georgescu's electoral inheritance, George Simion and Victor Ponta, both facing great difficulties in convincing because they are perceived, rightfully so, as people of the system, while the orphan electorate is predominantly anti-system.
George Simion has failed to gather all those who gathered in Constitution Square in Victory Square. It is a very clear expression of the electoral situation.
It's hard to believe that George Simion can miss entering the second round, given his current score in the polls. However, this could still happen only if he explicitly dissociates himself from Călin Georgescu, blessing Victor Ponta explicitly, something hard to believe will happen without a seismic event.
But besides making it to the final, what interests Simion is not ending up there with Victor Ponta as an adversary, because he has more potential to attract votes from other areas, primarily from the PSD.
The intense association that George Simion makes with Georgescu will likely get him to the second round, but there he will be blocked without the potential to garner votes from candidates who have dropped out. The current fierce campaign will make it difficult to gain supporters even from Victor Ponta, so the only chance is to start with as few as possible from now on.
However, Victor Ponta is much more experienced, more skilled, and less desperate. He has much less to lose compared to George Simion. His main opponent is himself, and if he can control that, unlike Mircea Geoana last year, he could cause significant losses to Simion.
But not only these two are after Georgescu's electorate. Crin Antonescu is making great efforts to attract as many sympathizers with some of the most outrageous statements, some even criticized by Kelemen Hunor, the one who came up with the idea of his candidacy. And Nicușor Dan is signaling to the conservative electorate by refusing any manly assumption on sensitive issues.
Does Georgescu Want Another Extremist's Victory?
Călin Georgescu remains silent. His will is transmitted by Simion and Gavrilă, although he could affirm it himself. True, he doesn't deny it either.
The question is whether Mr. Georgescu really has an interest in an extremist winning. Theoretically, Simion promises a return to the second round in December. That is, would he resign and organize new elections? Who can believe such a thing?
Călin Georgescu knows that whoever wins from the extremist zone, their first concern would be to bury him for good, because no one raises their rival on their own.
And it wouldn't be difficult to bury him because victory, at least in the first round, would naturally mean the enthronement of a new supreme leader of the extremist zone and the definitive oblivion of the politically dead king.
Georgescu's interest is to show that without him it's not possible, but he also can't put obvious obstacles. So, like a chicken, he stumbles, meaning he neither confirms nor denies support for any other extremist.
But the dead man from the grave doesn't come back. With a new president and the extremists defeated, it will be very difficult for the movement, so volatile and dependent on extreme emotions, to be revitalized.
The splitting and grinding of the extremists would be good news if things didn't look bad on the non-extremist side. A lady who I regularly buy apples from asked me who to vote for, as she no longer knows. And I replied that, honestly, I don't know what to tell her because I haven't made a decision myself. Not even the decision whether to vote.
But the sadness, let's say, of the pro-Europeans deserves a separate discussion.