An electoral campaign for elections that largely seem to be a national survey and a major testing ground for strategies for the upcoming fall-winter electoral season is coming to an end.
What is each party testing?
PNL and PSD, the governing coalition, will have the opportunity to find out how large the difference is between the political score in the European Parliament elections, on common lists, and the political score in the county councils, on separate lists. In other words, how reactive each party’s electorate is to the association with the other party.
If the score of the common list drops substantially below 50% and is very different from the combined score of the separate lists, the coalition will enter a crisis, because in the next campaign, each party will feel the need to convey the message of distancing desired by its own electorate.
For PNL, it is essential to rank second in the political vote for the County Council and maintain the main strongholds. It is already clear that the score will be lower than in 2020, they have lost numerous mayors, but below 20% would be a disaster. A disaster that could lead to drastic changes at the top of the party.
PSD cannot afford a drop below 30% without facing tremors, but considering the legacy of mayors, the risks are lower.
Despite the very tense relationship between the two parties in the field, they do not want to part ways. This coalition suits them because, fundamentally, they are both system parties, very similar. What is at stake is the balance of power between them.
The Liberals are not eager to join USR, on the contrary, I would say, but they want to be more important in the coalition, an equal partner. Their problem is that this status depends not only on the score but also on the party's leadership.
The United Right Alliance faces its first test since its formation. Surely the main stake is to keep the mayors with whom they enter the elections, especially in large cities, a goal largely achievable.
However, the political score will truly measure the viability of this political construction.
If it is around 20%, it can be considered that URA is a successful construction, and the USR electorate has managed to digest the association with not only conservative but also tainted with undesirable characters according to the old reformist standards of the party.
If the score drops below 15%, URA will face a crisis, especially under the pressure of the wing within USR that has shown skepticism, if not hostility, towards the alliance with PMP and FD and will no longer want to donate eligible seats in the fall.
As for the sovereigntists, they seem to be in a pronounced decline because, unlike other countries, Romania was lucky that this dangerous orientation fell into the hands of quite ridiculous and totally substanceless individuals who relied exclusively on circus and scandal but failed to sustain it at the same level. They couldn't have.
However, their percentage is the most difficult to anticipate because we cannot know if there is a spiral of silence that masks the real option of part of the electorate, it is difficult to anticipate how the vote will be in the diaspora, and what will be the effect of the scandal of false signatures, whether it will bury AUR or, on the contrary, will be fuel for a successful victimization campaign at the last moment. In other words, if the service cat is not resurrected.
And there is also PUSL to follow, the party of the revived political ambitions of Dan Voiculescu. The goal of Piedone's candidacy is not so much to win - there was a chance before Mrs. Firea's entry - but to raise the party's score in view of the parliamentary elections. Around 10% in Bucharest would be a good springboard.
In terms of ranking, first place is almost certain. It is hard to believe that the joint PSD - PNL list in the European Parliament elections and PSD in the County Councils will lose first place. However, the second position is highly contested.
For URA to come out third after AUR in the European Parliament elections would be the perfect disaster. For PNL to be below URA in the County Councils would be catastrophic.
Sunday's result is relevant for the presidential election as well
The likelihood of a common PSD-PNL candidate is very low, although one of the arguments for moving the presidential elections to September was to create a cascade effect. The common candidate to win and become the essential electoral agent for the joint list in the parliamentary elections.
With separate candidates, PSD and PNL will fight not only for the position itself but also for the bonus that the winner will propagate over the parliamentary elections. However, this means competition within the governing coalition, which will become unstable. We have seen this movie before in 2009.
Nicole Ciucă - the soldier is already announced as a candidate, Marcel Ciolacu, however, seems to still hope to find a solution to avoid the extremely high risk of candidacy. I understand that PSD is conducting intensive measurements in this regard.
The only solution would be almost impossible: the reassessment of Mircea Geoană, surprisingly, one that could cost him because it would take away his valuable status as independent.
It is difficult to anticipate the specific percentages after the delirium of opinion polls, another differentiator of this unprecedented campaign.