Elena Lasconi could be a true „game changer” in the upcoming presidential elections, as she will bring an element that has been missing in the equation so far. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Elena Lasconi would become the favorite to win the presidency, but she will certainly change the game, hierarchies, and strategies.
What does Elena Lasconi bring?
First and foremost, authenticity. She is a completely different model from the flat, dull, slippery politician image that currently populates the political scene, speaking stiffly, pretentiously, arrogantly. Whether Ms. Lasconi truly believes in everything she projects remains to be seen. But what she conveys certainly seems authentic and somewhat magnetic.
She knows and enjoys communicating, has charisma, energy, and a fair amount of courage.
After 10 years with a distant and absent president, the pendulum has swung to the other side, and people feel the need for something different, and Ms. Lasconi truly embodies that difference.
Paradoxically, Ms. Lasconi's ideological uncertainty, conservative in attitude and positions, and a member, soon to be the president, of a liberal party, could be an advantage in the presidential equation.
Because it would make Ms. Lasconi desirable even for the conservative anti-PSD electorate.
Does Ms. Lasconi have expertise in foreign policy, defense, security, diplomacy? We have no way of knowing, most likely not at the level required for the presidential position, but I fear that there is a large mass of Romanians who have no voting criteria other than the emotional one.
Strengths and Risks
In November, Elena Lasconi was measured by INSCOP at 10%, and since then, many things have happened in Romania. It is very likely that at this moment her percentages are much more substantial.
Beyond the USR base, Ms. Lasconi, precisely because of her ideological versatility, could attract quite a lot, primarily from the moderate anti-system disappointed by Simion, from the liberals who cannot stomach N. Ciucă, and even from the PSD, plus a group of undecided voters who could be mobilized by something fresh.
What is remarkable about her is not the number of votes obtained in Câmpulung, not even the percentage itself, but the fact that in 2020, she completely changed the trajectory of this resigned city submerged in a red political sea. For those familiar with the area, this is no small feat, and not many gave her a chance to succeed.
Having good premises does not mean that Ms. Lasconi's path will be a smooth ride. First and foremost, she needs to clarify some important issues with the USR and REPER electoral base, especially regarding the traditional family.
Personal beliefs are not to be questioned, but rather how she relates to those with different convictions. It is perfectly fine to wear large crosses around her neck, as long as she respects the choice of atheists and is willing to fight for them to express their beliefs.
It is okay to believe in the traditional family, as long as she does not consider that this option should be imposed, including through a referendum, on those who believe differently.
Also, in relation to her own party, there will be risks from those she will remove. She is already playing tough politics, conditioning her presidential candidacy on the election of her team to the National Bureau. She will probably get it, but there will be resentments, and it is hard to believe that those who lose now will resign and not try to undermine her.
Furthermore, Ms. Lasconi may fall into the sin of excess, as it has happened before, and as written at the time, she may pay for her lack of political experience at a high level. The country is not just a larger Câmpulung. In other words, there is a risk of her head swelling and losing touch with reality.
Let's not forget about the chronic misogyny of Romanian society, which is not at all clear if it is ready for a woman in the position of president.
Lasconi's Effects
It is currently difficult to anticipate whether Ms. Lasconi has a real chance of winning the presidential race. There are still many calculations and analyses to be made for such a statement. But some political effects are already foreseeable.
The chance of a final round with George Simion, especially coveted by Marcel Ciolacu, becomes even slimmer. Similarly, Nicolae Ciucă's chance of reaching the final diminishes as nearly a fifth of the liberal electorate declared, according to INSCOP, in November that they would prefer Ms. Lasconi.
It would not necessarily be a joy for Marcel Ciolacu either because, no matter how small the percentage transfer from the PSD electorate, it will add to those taken by Mircea Geoană.
A return to a joint PSD-PNL candidate would not be a solution; on the contrary, it would increase the number of those seeking another solution because their party does not have a candidate.
All in all, Elena Lasconi's candidacy throws a challenge onto the political table, and it remains to be seen how the other parties will play it.