It is difficult to anticipate the impact of the European Court’s decision against Mrs. von der Leyen, which came just one day before the current President of the Commission received the EP vote for a new mandate.
One thing is certain, this blow complicates the situation greatly, starting with the increase in support prices especially beyond the EPP group.
But the question of the moment should not be whether Mrs. von der Leyen will gather the 361 votes, but whether her reconfirmation is a good solution for the EU.
"Dragneismul" of Mrs. von der Leyen
The ECJ decision targets a key element for any public money management - transparency. Mrs. von der Leyen is not reproached for the purchase of Covid vaccines per se, no decision taken in the Covid crisis is reproached.
She is reproached for attempting to keep secret how she spent European public money by hiding behind the imperative of protecting the commercial interests of producing companies, which could not be convincingly proven in court.
And behind this unproven imperative, there is suspicion of a conflict of interest of Mrs. von der Leyen. This is why the ECJ concluded that the EC did not provide a wide enough access to contracts regarding anti-Covid vaccines.
Adding to this is the conflict that Mrs. von der Leyen has with EPPO, for what Codruța Kovesi accused of being a serious underfunding, decided under the conditions in which the European Prosecutor's Office has a case on vaccines, which basically targets what the ECJ has found.
It is very difficult for a President of the EC who is under such suspicion, who is accused of trying to cover up traces and stifle the prosecutor's investigation, to maintain the credibility of the EC and its management of the EU's huge budget, to demand respect for the rule of law from EU governments and impose sanctions on those who do not comply.
And this just when the European construction is under unprecedented pressure from sovereigntism.
The simple fact that extremist/populist/sovereigntist parties entering the EP failed to unite and their division facilitated their isolation through a sanitary cordon does not diminish the message given by the EU electorate. If this message is not respected, the next elections could be truly devastating.
If the EC, the core of the EU, is not credible and trustworthy, if it cannot legitimately impose fundamental principles, all mechanisms and the entire edifice collapse.
In these circumstances, the re-election of Mrs. von der Leyen could cause immense and possibly irreparable damage to the EU.
There is another element that should not be ignored. In the US, the re-election of Donald Trump seems very close to a done deal, after the latest traumatic events.
Europe needs an extremely vigorous and articulate voice to deal with the complicated relationship with a difficult and highly transactional American president. Let's not forget that even in designating Mark Rutte at the head of NATO, the good relationship he has with Donald Trump was an argument.
Who could replace Mrs. von der Leyen?
If she fails in Thursday's vote, the discussion will certainly restart. The favorite would be the Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, who, however, would not want the position, or the Croatian Plenković, which would balance the delicate subject of representation of newly entered states in the EU, while keeping the leadership of the EC in the German influence zone.
Plenković is the Prime Minister with whom, according to Politico, Mrs. von der Leyen had the most bilateral meetings in the last 5 years. This does not mean that the list is closed.
Regarding Mr. Iohannis's chances, no one considers it a serious discussion, even if he seems to be putting his head back in the picture, according to sources. He has as many chances as he had to be NATO Secretary General, and not because he is a Romanian citizen, but because he lacks the stature and qualities needed, as shown coldly by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.