We have reached the middle of an electoral campaign which, as analyst Radu Magdin said on Europa FM, is a kind of death of passion, with the exception of a few more disputed cities, generally led by USR mayors.
In the rest, the level of communication, debate, and visuals is abysmal and at times even disdainful towards the intelligence of the voters. This is regarding the campaign for local elections, which, for better or for worse, exists. The campaign for the European Parliament elections is canceled.
This is all the political class can do, this is the maximum level, or are we talking about a strategy?
Most likely a combination. On one hand, the political level has significantly decreased. Politicians who are good communicators, with at least a hint of general culture, not to mention humor or vision, are very few. From my point of view, the only authentic one left is Kelemen Hunor, but with limited electoral potential. Therefore, the level of communication cannot exceed much beyond sending the cow out to pasture and going out to mow.
On the other hand, the decrease, to at most a straw, of the political temperature serves wonderfully the parties in power.
The big fear was that, after successive crises and the frustrations they caused, the accumulated tension in society would create a wave that would massively impact political power. And on the crest of the wave, the sovereigntist-populist area was expected to rise.
However, the consolidation of the elections had the effect of shifting all attention to local issues, local candidates, various and different issues from county to county, from locality to locality, making it difficult to coalesce a unified message that would create a wave.
The European elections could have done that: a national vote where all frustrations and all anti-European manipulations could be exploited. And AUR and SOS were preparing for that. However, this debate is completely missing, the discourse is fragmented into local areas, and the populist sovereigntist parties are rather absent from it because they have no candidates.
As the initial calendar showed, a good score in the European elections would have made them attractive for the local elections, both from the candidates’ perspective and from the electorate’s.
Therefore, theoretically, the low temperature and emotion will lead the local elections to decide the score of the European elections and keep the turnout within normal limits, without peaks like the one five years ago.
The strategy so far seems to be a successful one, but it could be disrupted by two uncontrollable elements.
On one hand, it is possible that the real decrease in AUR support may not be as pronounced, but just an appearance caused by the spiral of silence. Meaning people intimidated by the shame administered by the populist sovereigntists or worried that, especially in small localities, they will bear the consequences of the mayors’ anger, might prefer to hide their true voting option, which they will only affirm on June 9, in the privacy of the voting booth.
It is also not clear what will happen in the diaspora, where there is no shielding of the local elections. How the voting option is shaping up there is impossible to anticipate, primarily because a phone sample cannot be compiled.
Another element that could disrupt the sleepy strategy is the emergence of a black swan. Especially given the efficiency of the institutions and the state of all kinds of infrastructure in Romania, anything can happen at any time. An event with a great emotional impact, such as Colectiv or the horror nursing homes, can at any time completely change the narrative and dynamics of this campaign, creating a wave of emotion with hardly predictable results.