President Donald Trump’s statements and posts regarding the war in Ukraine have become devoid of substance. In the absence of a ceasefire or a nearing peace agreement, the real test will be whether Trump will back up his recent criticisms of Vladimir Putin with concrete actions.
The Kremlin seems to be betting that he won’t, as indicated by an analysis published by CNN.
Putin Provokes Trump
The Kremlin dismissed Trump's irritation over intense drone attacks on Ukraine as "emotional overload."
Experience shows that Putin can push the limits without major consequences. Trump's criticism of the Russian leader on the Truth Social platform was accompanied by the usual victim-blaming - Ukraine and President Zelensky.
The intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilians seem to be a deliberate test imposed on Trump, a week after his phone call with Putin.
Although the U.S. administration claimed the discussion was constructive, no real progress towards peace has been recorded.
Trump has two options. Either impose new sanctions on Russia, which he previously considered a diplomatic obstacle, or seek Congress's approval for new arms deliveries to Ukraine. Both options involve a significant political turnaround but could save lives and change the conflict's dynamics.
The Political Cost of Change
Supporting Ukraine with arms would represent a shameful retreat from his anti-foreign aid stance, a key theme in his second term. It would also mean a painful acknowledgment that his strategy to manage Putin has failed, as it has with other American presidents.
There is a risk that Trump may declare himself powerless and argue that neither party wants peace, hence the U.S. should withdraw.
This scenario would validate Russia's territorial gains and set a dangerous precedent for European security and U.S. commitments.
MAGA Movement Encourages Isolationism
The isolationism promoted by the MAGA movement is reflected in recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, suggesting that the U.S. could take a step back.
Trump's post on Truth Social seems to pave the way for this withdrawal.
Pressure mounts on Trump after his promise to end the war in 24 hours proved to be a fantasy. Imposing secondary sanctions targeting institutions and companies collaborating with Russia could be a concrete first step to regain credibility.
A Bipartisan Bill
Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal have proposed a bill supported by 81 congressmen that would sanction countries continuing economic relations with Russia. The initiative would affect allies like India and send a strong signal to the Kremlin.
Trump could strengthen Ukraine's air defense by delivering Patriot missiles to counter drone and cruise missile attacks.
While there is a risk of direct escalation with Russia, the support would demonstrate real political will, unlike the current hesitations.
Europe Awaits a Signal
After a discussion with Trump, Emmanuel Macron stated that the American leader realized Putin lied when he claimed to want peace. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Ukraine can use European weapons without range restrictions, a potential paradigm shift.
European diplomats hope Trump will reconsider his position, but no one can guarantee that. While the rhetoric has changed, concrete actions are slow to materialize, and uncertainty remains dominant in the U.S.-Russia relationship under the American president.
Kremlin Doesn't Believe in Change
Trump has never truly criticized Putin, and the Russian leader's brutality is not new. The war launched in 2022 has killed tens of thousands of civilians and led to international arrest warrants. Therefore, Trump's rhetoric is viewed with much skepticism.
Trump's comments seem to have internal political purposes - to divert attention from uncomfortable questions about Ukraine and to garner favorable headlines in the press.
However, once the media moment passes, Trump often returns to indifference towards the conflict.
Former intelligence official Beth Sanner states that "words are cheap," and actions are lacking.
"Putin doesn't believe Trump will go all the way," she says. The real test for the administration will be whether it will militarily support Ukraine and impose real sanctions.