Natural forests and peatlands have been essential for Finland’s ambitious goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2035. But now the land has started emitting more greenhouse gases than it stores. Finland’s entire forest system hangs on a drying tree.
The midsummer months in the Inari region, in Finnish Lapland, have been warm and dry. Now those conifers on the tips of the branches are orange instead of a deep green. The moss on the ground that was usually swollen with water has withered.
"I have spoken with many elderly reindeer herders who have never experienced the heat we had this summer. The sun continues to shine, and there is no rain at all," says Tiina Sanila-Aikio, former president of the Finnish parliament.
The boreal forests here, in the ancient Sami land, grow over such a long timescale that even small, delicate trees sometimes reach hundreds of years. This area is part of the Taiga, the coniferous forest that begins where the tundra ends and extends around the distant northern hemisphere, in Siberia, Scandinavia, Alaska, and Canada.
These are forests that have contributed to supporting the credibility of the most ambitious carbon neutrality target in the developed world: Finland's commitment to achieving zero carbon emissions by 2035.
Through this law that came into force two years ago, Finland aims to achieve the goal 15 years earlier than many other EU countries. In a country with 5.6 million people and with almost 70% of the area covered by forests and peatlands, many believed that the plan would go well, notes The Guardian.
The Effects of Misguided Calculations
For decades, Finland's forests and peatlands efficiently removed more carbon from the atmosphere than they released. However, around 2010, the amount absorbed by the soil began to decrease - initially slowly, then rapidly. By 2018, this process had disappeared.
The forested area of the country decreased by approximately 90% from 2009 to 2022.
The rest of the decline in carbon absorption was fueled by increased emissions from soil and peat. In 2021-2022, Finland's land sector contributed net to global warming.
The impact on Finland's overall climate progress is dramatic: despite a 43% reduction in emissions in all other sectors, net emissions are approximately at the same level as in the early '90s - as if nothing had happened for 30 years.
The collapse has enormous implications, not only for Finland but also internationally. At least 118 countries rely on natural carbon reservoirs to achieve climate goals. Now, through a combination of human destruction and the climate crisis itself, some targets are faltering, and decreases in carbon absorption are beginning to be seen.
"We cannot achieve carbon neutrality if the land sector is a source of emissions. They must be absorption basins, as not all emissions can be reduced to zero in other sectors," explains Juha Mikola, a researcher at the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), responsible for providing the government's official figures.
"When these targets were set, we thought that soil absorptions would be around 20 to 25 million tons, and we could reach the goal. But now the situation has changed. The main reason is the nearly 80% decrease in forest land absorption," he adds.
The causes behind these changes are complex and not fully understood, say researchers.
Why Finland's Forests Are Dying
Burning peat for energy remains a common practice. Peat, a type of inferior coal, is a sedimentary rock formed by the slow decomposition and partial carbonization of accumulated plant material in bogs and is more polluting than ordinary coal mined.
Commercial forest exploitation has increased at an unprecedented rate, constituting the largest part of emissions from Finland's land sector.
But there are indications that the climate crisis has also become a driver of decline. Rising temperatures in the planet's fastest-warming part warm Finland's soil, increasing the rate at which peatlands decompose and release greenhouse gases into the air. Palsas - huge mounds of frozen peat - are rapidly disappearing in Lapland.
And the number of dried trees has increased in recent years as well, as forests are under climate stress caused by drought and high temperatures.
In southeastern Finland, the number of dead trees has increased rapidly, by 788% in just six years between 2017 and 2023, and the amount of standing deadwood - decomposing trees - has increased by about 900%.
The country's forests, mostly planted after World War II, are also reaching maturity, approaching the maximum amount of carbon they can naturally store.
"Five years ago, the general narrative was that Finland's forests are a huge carbon reservoir - that they can actually offset Finland's emissions. This has changed very, very dramatically," says Bernt Nordman from WWF Finland.
It's not just Finland experiencing such a decline: France, Germany, Czechia, Sweden, and Estonia are among the countries that have recorded significant declines in forest and peatland basins, writes the British newspaper.
Drought, extreme weather episodes, pest attacks (bark beetles), fires, and tree drying due to heat are devastating Europe's forests, in addition to the pressure exerted by forestry.
According to the latest research, in the EU, the amount of carbon absorbed by the soil has decreased by about a third each year between 2010 and 2022, threatening the continent's climate goal.
"The reasons (for Finland's decline) are not fully explored, but it is highly likely a combination of unsustainable forest management, drought, and extreme weather conditions. We see similar trends in Canada, largely from disease outbreaks, but also in Sweden. These are temperate northern countries that have considered the carbon reservoir as a central part of their climate policy.
It is a very high risk for these governments," says Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
When Money Dictates, the Forest Suffers
It is believed that a portion of Finland's forest has remained untouched. It often grows on peatland basins or around them, but government protection is limited. New areas are regularly cleared for pulp and timber, writes The Guardian.
Researchers say that slowing down deforestation, better protecting intact ecosystems, and improving the management of forested areas could help restore Finland's forest floor. But the imposed cost has led to resistance from the forestry industry.
The Finnish Ministry of Finance estimates that a one-third reduction in timber harvest would reduce Finland's GDP by 2.1%, equivalent to between 1.7 and 5.8 billion euros per year.
Increasing forest protection would also cost the country hundreds of millions of euros, according to the Finnish Nature Panel. The state owns 35% of the forests, while the rest belongs to private owners, companies, municipalities, and various organizations.
Finland's major timber producers claim that the country's forests still absorb more carbon than they release, but at the same time acknowledge that the quantity has dramatically decreased in recent years. Fossil fuels, rather than forestry, pose the greatest threat to the climate, they say.
A spokesperson for Metsä Group, a cooperative with over 90,000 forest owners, says that whenever a forest is cut, new trees are planted, meaning that long-term carbon capture can be increased. And a spokesperson for UPM, a Finnish forest company, says that the carbon neutrality target for 2035 is too optimistic.
"Calls to restrict harvesting often overlook that the state owns about a quarter of Finland's forests. The government can restrict harvesting on its own land if it is willing to bear significant direct and indirect financial consequences," UPM argues.
The Tree on Which Finland's Entire Forest System Hangs
However, nature does not take into account the calculations made by humans.
The global temperature rise could further degrade Finland's forest and peatland basin, warn researchers. Studies show that in boreal ecosystems forests are losing their ability to absorb and store as much carbon.
"There are a few truly serious scientific scenarios in which, if climate change occurs, the spruce in Finland will not survive, at least in southern Finland. The entire forest system relies on this tree," Nordman says.
For communities that have always lived in the Arctic Circle, the changes are already clear. As autumn approaches, Sanila-Aikio prepares for the return of reindeer from summer grazing areas ahead of an uncertain winter.
If the drought persists in the soil, there will be no mushrooms for the reindeer herds. And if the animals don't fatten up, they will starve, she explains.
T.D.