Like many failed relationships, it was a story of arguments, unspoken tensions, and attempts to maintain appearances in public since Donald Trump reentered the White House a year ago.
But for many European governments, including America’s oldest and most loyal allies, Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs against anyone trying to stop him from taking Greenland was the last straw. The divorce is now inevitable, writes Politico.
In private, dismayed European officials describe Trump's haste to annex the Danish sovereign territory as "crazy."
- Trump announces additional tariffs for eight European countries. Until the U.S. fully takes over Greenland. Emergency EU meeting
- Europe prepares for open confrontation with Trump. EU considers "commercial bazooka." €93 billion in taxes and restrictions for American companies
"I think he went too far," said a European diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Senior European officials increasingly believe that it is time to face the truth that Trump's America is no longer a reliable trade partner, let alone a reliable security ally, and urgently look towards the future.
"There is a change in U.S. policy and, in many ways, it is permanent. Waiting is not a solution. What needs to be done is an orderly and coordinated move towards a new reality," according to a senior official from a European government.
This coordination has already begun, as has the great conversation about what comes next.
Except for a radical change in the approach of the United States, this process seems likely to end with a radical reshaping of the West, overturning the global balance of power. The implications range from transatlantic economic damage as trade tensions rise, to security risks as Europe tries to defend itself without American assistance before being fully prepared to do so.
There would likely be costs for the United States as well, such as their ability to project power in Africa and the Middle East without access to the network of bases, landing strips, and logistical support that Europe currently provides.
A post-US future
Diplomats and government officials from national capitals are considering what a long-term separation from Washington could bring.
For most, the prospect is a painful one, ending 80 years of peaceful cooperation, mutual support, and profitable trade, and dealing a fatal blow to NATO in its current form. Many governments want to salvage what they can, while Italy's far-right leader, Giorgia Meloni, tries to rebuild relationships.
But for some government officials, a post-US future for Western allies is not hard to imagine.
For starters, European states, including those outside the EU like the UK and Norway, have spent much of Trump's second term working in an increasingly efficient group that already operates without America: the so-called coalition of the willing to support Ukraine.
National security advisers from 35 governments are in regular contact, meeting frequently and also interacting through less formal text messages. They are accustomed to seeking multilateral solutions in a world where Trump is a big part of the problem.
Levels of trust in these circles are generally high, according to individuals familiar with how the group operates.
Leaders like Keir Starmer from the UK, Emmanuel Macron from France, Friedrich Merz from Germany, as well as the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Alexander Stubb from Finland, and Meloni from Italy regularly exchange text messages.
Messages between leaders when Trump does something crazy
Over the past year, they have developed a well-honed routine of messaging each other whenever Trump does something crazy and potentially harmful.
"This discussion group is truly effective," said a person familiar with the discussions.
The "informal but active" arrangement is known as the Washington Group, after the group of European leaders who visited the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last August.
Their approach over the past year has largely been to keep calm and respond to his political actions rather than take the bait of his provocative words. This group has greased the wheels of the peace process in Ukraine, with the coalition of the willing nearing a framework for a peace plan that includes American security guarantees for Ukraine.
But Trump's Greenland scandal has now tipped the balance.
The gentle approach to the American president's threats has disappeared. Even Starmer, normally the most circumspect of leaders, called the president's tariff threat "wrong," including apparently in a direct conversation with Trump on Sunday.
The Greenland crisis has focused attention on how to move forward without America alongside.
"The coalition of the willing started around Ukraine," said another diplomat. "But it has created very close ties between some key people in capitals. They have built trust and also the ability to work together."
Who needs NATO?
This format could potentially become the grounds for a new security alliance in an era where the U.S. no longer supports NATO and European security. A new agreement would not exclude cooperation with America, but neither would it consider it favorable.
Also included in the text message discussions with the Washington Group leaders is Zelensky himself, bringing another interesting idea. Ukraine is by far the most militarized country among those represented, with a massive army, an extremely sophisticated drone production industry, and more expertise in the realities of waging war than anyone else.
While Ukraine has long sought to join NATO, it now seems less of a prize than before, as America's promises to support any security guarantees become less convincing by the day.
If Ukraine's military power were included, when added to that of France, Germany, Poland, and the UK, among others, the potential military power of the coalition of the willing would be vast and would include both nuclear and non-nuclear states.
While Europe's need to defend itself with less American support is an old conversation topic, an avalanche of initiatives has been recorded in recent days.
European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius, proposed a week ago a permanent EU army of 100,000 soldiers and revived the idea of a European Security Council consisting of about 12 members, including the UK. Von der Leyen has advocated a new European Security Strategy, although few details have yet been provided.
There is a broad consensus that these discussions about a new European security architecture need to happen quickly. EU leaders will meet in person for an emergency summit in the coming days to calibrate a response to Trump's Greenland threats, although the discussion could be much broader than that.
With Trump set to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, there is also the possibility of face-to-face discussions between the European and American sides.
After speaking with Merz, Macron, Starmer, and NATO chief Mark Rutte, von der Leyen stated that Europeans will "remain steadfast" in their commitment to protect Greenland. "We will face these challenges to our European solidarity with firmness and determination," she said.
Given the current moment, creative thinking will also be needed.