We have the first political configurations for the elections on May 4th, as the period for submitting documents to the BEC for the registration of electoral alliances has expired. Only one was registered, the Romania Forward Alliance, A.Ro., composed of PSD, PNL, and UDMR.
The protocol for the formation of the alliance provides that it has a single candidate for the presidential elections, Crin Antonescu. Therefore, as lawyer Toni Neacșu points out on Facebook, „any discussion about any other common candidate than Crin Antonescu would lead to the breaking of the protocol, his name and support being explicitly mentioned in it.”
From this moment on, the discussion about replacing Crin Antonescu should be closed. The actual level of support enjoyed by the common candidate from the three parties is another discussion. Just as it is a discussion to what extent the mobilization of the parties will matter in the May elections, a tradition of the first round contradicted by the events of November 24th.
What is much more interesting is what is happening in the extremist zone.
The parties that support, at least declaratively, Mr. Georgescu have not formed an electoral alliance, so they will not be officially, legally represented in the elections by this independent candidate on the ballot.
However, most importantly, AUR, SOS, and POT maintain their legal right to have their own candidate on May 4th. This is very important, considering that, despite the signatures already gathered, it is highly debatable whether Mr. Georgescu will make it onto the ballot.
On one hand, the Șoșoacă precedent is more than applicable in Mr. Georgescu's case. The statements and actions reproached to Mrs. Șoșoacă are trivial compared to what can be attributed to Mr. Georgescu. He already announces a serious overstepping of constitutional duties, threatening with all kinds of purges, including justice.
And, extremely serious, he announces territorial claims of Romania towards Ukraine and the intention to demand at the "peace" table a series of regions from the neighboring state, recognized by Romania through a bilateral treaty. Mr. Georgescu's revisionist statements have, moreover, been echoed by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov.
President of the CCR Marian Enache sent a clear signal, on the verge of a pronouncement, in an interview for juridice.ro.
"The states in the civilized world of Europe and the US should be aware of such outbursts, precisely to be repudiated, and to defend democratic values and constitutional justice. People's votes in any country cannot be appropriated through manipulations that violate the law, deceptive promises, and stunning threats of revenge against the state institutions and all those who do not agree and do not 'align' with someone's desires.
Such manifestations of 'electoral virility', deeply antidemocratic and dangerous, will tomorrow be directed against any citizen who has the courage to oppose and not 'obligatorily' become a follower.
All will be punished for disobedience and deviation from the demands of a candidate?! This is not about individuals, as one would understand at first glance, but about the sharp opposition between democratic ideology and totalitarian tendencies, which issue ultimatums."
Starting today, candidacies can be submitted to the BEC, which can admit or reject them. Within 24 hours of the BEC decision, an appeal can be made, with a maximum resolution period of 2 days. It should be noted that the legislation has not been amended after last year's events. Therefore, the CCR is not obliged to cite the parties, to ensure adversarial proceedings, and, of course, there is no appeal against the decision made.
The deadline for submitting candidacies is March 15th.
With the minimum number of 200,000 signatures already collected, it is expected that Mr. Georgescu will submit his candidacy as soon as possible, so that in case of rejection, there will be time to gather other signatures in the extremist zone to ensure they do not remain without a candidate.
Who Could Take Over from Mr. Georgescu
Obviously, two candidates are intensively preparing on the sidelines. The best placed is George Simion, engaged in a frenetic campaign both domestically and internationally.
I will never believe that the AUR leader is really after Georgescu. During the vote on November 24th, he was sending messages to the electorate not to be fooled by this surprise character.
He immediately adjusted after the announcement of the results. The calculation is very simple. If Georgescu had stayed in the race, Simion could not surpass him, but he could have been accused of breaking the unity of extremists. If Georgescu is eliminated, Simion hoped to take over the bulk of the support as a faithful successor.
I would note that George Becali, AUR deputy and a close associate of George Simion, is an opponent of Georgescu and threatens an independent candidacy if Simion does not run.
The second contender waiting to take over is Victor Ponta, who hopes to also count on support from the Social Democrats, especially if Mr. Georgescu is out of the equation and his chances increase.
Mrs. Șoșoacă is another variable factor. It is hard to believe that she could be stopped again, but Georgescu allowed to run. Either they both run, and then it remains to be seen who the supporters of Mrs. Șoșoacă will turn to. Or they both stay, and Mrs. Șoșoacă will chip away at Georgescu's percentages.
But there is another possibility that does not seem entirely unbelievable. In the event of a ban, Mr. Georgescu may put forward his wife, Mrs. Cristela Georgescu, to run with his support, in his name, and with the promise that he will appoint her as prime minister.