Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD candidate for the position of President of Romania, is leading in the voting intention ranking for the first round of the presidential elections, according to a survey conducted by INSCOP Research between October 11-18, 2024.
He is followed by George Simion, the AUR candidate, and Mircea Geoană, an independent candidate.
The data presented on Tuesday by another survey showed a completely different picture.
According to the INSCOP research, in relation to those who have expressed their preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (78.1% of the total sample, error +/-3.3%), the voting intention ranking is as follows:
- Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 24.1%
- George Simion (AUR) - 20.7%
- Mircea Geoană (independent) - 18.1%
- Elena Lasconi (USR) - 15%
- Nicolae Ciucă (PNL) 8.2%
- Cristian Diaconescu (independent) - 5.1%
- Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) - 3.8%
- Cristian Terheş (Romanian National Conservative Party) - 1.9%
- Ludovic Orban (PMP and FD) - 1.9%
- Ana Birchall (independent) - 0.9%
- Other candidate - 0.4%
For the second round of the presidential elections, INSCOP presents the following scenarios:
- Marcel Ciolacu vs. George Simion. If Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 56% of respondents who have chosen a candidate would vote for the current Prime Minister, and 44% for the AUR leader.
- Marcel Ciolacu vs. Mircea Geoană. If Marcel Ciolacu and Mircea Geoană were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 55.6% of respondents who have chosen a candidate say they would vote for the former NATO Deputy Secretary General, and 44.4% for the current Prime Minister.
- Marcel Ciolacu vs. Elena Lasconi. If Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 53% of respondents who have chosen a candidate would vote for the current Prime Minister, and 47% for the USR leader.
- Marcel Ciolacu vs. Nicolae Ciucă. If Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 63.1% of respondents who have chosen a candidate say they would vote for the current Prime Minister, and 36.9% for the PNL leader.
The INSCOP opinion poll was commissioned by the newspaper Libertatea.
The data was collected between October 11-18, 2024, using the CATI method (telephone interviews), with a simple, stratified sample volume of 1106 individuals, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over.
The maximum allowable data error is +/-2.95%, with a confidence level of 95%.