Until the final results, there are a few certainties regarding the euro-locals from June 9. The most surprising, relative to expectations, is not so much the victory, but the overwhelming proportions of the PSD-PNL victory in the political vote.
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Both the joint list with over 50%, and the separate lists for the County Councils, with nearly 60%, show that the current coalition paraded. And the big winner is the PSD, Marcel Ciolacu won this bet, including the definitive political burial of Gabriela Firea, with the shovel even held by the lady herself.
This score seems almost inexplicable considering the weak governance, with discontent, protests, record inflation, patch-ups, stumbles, and against the backdrop of a voter turnout even higher than 5, respectively 4 years ago.
What are, however, the reasons behind the overwhelming victory of PSD-PNL?
Surely, the public money pumped into the media is an explanation, but certainly not the only one, and in my opinion, not the most important. Another important explanation is the maximum mobilization of the PSD and PNL mayors, who worked tirelessly for their own mandates.
But a major explanation is also the extremely poor offer from the Opposition, whether we are talking about the sovereigntist one, unfortunately in the hands of some clowns, or the USR, which through ADU betrayed its electorate (this aspect will be detailed in a separate analysis).
People wanted to vote, but many didn't have anyone to vote for. So, many, like more than half of the Bucharest residents, stayed at home. And for the rest, the stability of this coalition and the projection of solid parties prevailed.
It is a result that seriously raises the issue of transforming the electoral alliance into a political one, meaning joint lists for parliamentary elections and, not at all excluded once again, a common candidate for the presidential elections.
The PNL has somewhat relaunched, in terms of the political score, in a fury to balance the power dynamics with the PSD, feeling that it is on the brink of political demise. The wounded pride and desperation of the liberals, who engaged in territorial confrontations, were an important driving force.
Another explanation was the lamentable counteroffer in the non-PSD area. All in all, the PNL result diminishes the risk of overturning Ciucă's team. The group that sharpened their knives in hopes of a revolution will have to wait.
The Capital of Great Defeats
In Bucharest, Nicușor Dan's victory is undeniable and extremely important. But its proportions are not spectacular except from the perspective of the proportions of the defeat of the opponents.
47% is a good score, but not as crushing as Ciprian Ciucu's 73% victory in Sector 6 or Elena Lasconi's 71% in Câmpulung, just to give two examples.
The current and future mayor garnered around 400,000 votes out of 1.8 million registered voters on the permanent lists in Bucharest. That is a real score of approximately 23%.
Nicușor Dan also benefited from the incumbent mayor's bonus in the single-round elections.
As I mentioned, it was not so much a victory by score, but a defeat by score of the opponents, especially Gabriela Firea, who had the highest ambitions. Her defeat is epic and, if not final, at least enough for a long career break, in exile in Brussels.
It was a determined and desperate defeat she headed towards, and Marcel Ciolacu only had to not block her path.
If we look at the combined score of Firea - Piedone, we see that this division was not the explanation for the defeat, but what I have been writing about since the time when Mrs. Firea was struggling to secure the candidacy: she couldn't win after the waves of hatred she had raised so far.
If Nicușor Dan had a strong opponent, such as Ciprian Ciucu, for example, I don't know if he would have lost, but surely the difference wouldn't have been as big.
I don't believe Nicușor Dan has presidential ambitions, as some project, and neither real chances. From 400,000 votes, largely negative votes, to a presidential victory, a multiplication by 10 is needed, which is very difficult.
The low turnout in Bucharest, at the bottom of the national ranking, shows that people were dissatisfied with the offer and rejected it. They made sure to avoid disaster, but nothing more.