Why we should care about the elections in Germany. Money, money, money and... war (Infographics)

The US elections won by Donald Trump in November have caused, as expected, shockwaves around the world. But the Sunday elections in Germany could be almost as important. Germany is at the center of Europe, at the heart of the continent's trade networks, and at the center of European politics. This is due in part to its large size, but also because for decades this country has enjoyed economic success and political stability. However, the upcoming federal elections scheduled for Sunday, February 23, could jeopardize Germany's reliability. Polls suggest that the far right is on the rise and is expected to perform better than in the previous election. The Guardian succinctly shows, with data and infographics, why the German elections are so important for the whole of Europe. ### A Country Equal to 17 Others Although not the largest country in the EU in terms of land area, Germany is by far the most populous. It has nearly 20 million more inhabitants than the UK or France and practically twice as many residents as Spain or Poland. **Population in millions of inhabitants** ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/populatie-1-1024x512.png) In fact, with a population of 84.5 million people, Germany has more inhabitants than the 17 smallest countries in the European Union combined. In total, these small states have a population of 83.5 million people. ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/tari-mici.png) ### An Economy 15 Times Larger Than Romania's Germany is one of the engines of the European economy, with the largest GDP on the continent. And this is not just a reflection of its larger population - Germany's economy is 15 times larger than Romania's, despite having a population only four times larger than that of our country. - [Collapse of Germany: The largest economy enters recession, dragging the entire EU with it](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/opinii-si-analize/tabloul-prabusirii-germaniei-cea-mai-mare-economie-intra-in-recesiune-tragand-dupa-ea-intreaga-ue) **Annual GDP in millions of euros** ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/PIB-1024x524.png) ### A Stable Country Political stability has also been a characteristic of Germany, with coalition governments of all kinds providing broad consensus and stability. On average, a German government has led the country for 3.8 years between 2000 and 2010. The rest of Europe is more turbulent - governments have usually lasted less than two years in France and Italy and only six months in Belgium. **Average government stability in years** ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/stabilitate-guverne-1024x532.png) But Germany is now feeling the influences that its neighbors have faced, especially in German-speaking countries. These elections come shortly after the collapse of the center-left government coalition, with populist parties attacking from the extremes. According to polls, **the far right and far left are set to achieve the largest combined share of votes in Germany in over two decades**. Specifically, the populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) is experiencing the largest increase in support since the last federal elections held in 2021. The party is considered far-right, and its 2025 political program advocates for Germany's exit from the eurozone and resuming imports of Russian gas. - [Elections in Germany. AfD presented its "future plans": Foreigners leave, Russian gas returns, wind turbines are demolished, EU becomes history (Video)](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/eveniment/alegeri-in-germania-afd-si-a-prezentat-planurile-de-viitor-strainii-pleaca-gazul-rusesc-se-intoarce-eolienele-sunt-demolate-ue-devine-istorie-video) Additionally, the center-right CDU/CSU coalition is expected to gain more votes than in the last elections, according to polls. AfD is on track to become the second largest party in the Bundestag, while the far-left parties together account for approximately 10% of the votes. **Current poll results:** - **CDU/CSU** (center-right) - 30% - **AfD** (far-right) - 20% - **SPD** (center-left) - 16% **Results from the 2021 elections:** - **SPD** (center-left) - 26% - **CDU/CSU** (center-right) - 24% - **AfD** (far-right) - 10% ### The Largest Contributor to the EU Budget The fact that the CDU, which could be the largest party, is increasingly adopting rhetoric from the AfD playbook is a cause for concern for Brussels and Germany's partners in the EU. Germany is the largest net contributor to the EU budget and a pivot in the euro monetary system. AfD would like Germany to exit the eurozone and reduce its payments to the EU. **Contribution to the EU budget (%)** ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/contributie-buget-1024x533.png) Eroding Germany's position in the EU could not come at a worse time for the European bloc. Trump is threatening the European Union with trade tariffs, saying, "It's a disgrace... the millions of cars they send." Which country in Europe exports the most cars to the US? Germany, of course: **Annual car exports to the US (%)** ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/exporturi-masini-SUA-1-1024x533.png) Like it or not, the new chancellor will have to take on a leadership role in shaping Europe's response to the tariffs imposed by the US. And this must be done against a backdrop of domestic Euroscepticism, knowing that tariffs most affect Germany, notes the British newspaper. - [Trump is concerned about the trade deficit with the EU: Much of it comes from American companies in Ireland and is stimulated by America's tax regime](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/economie/pe-trump-il-doare-deficitul-comercial-cu-ue-mare-parte-provine-de-la-companiile-americane-din-irlanda-si-e-stimulat-de-regimul-fiscal-al-americii) ### Germany Must Clean Up After Trump Regarding security and military affairs, Germany's role will also be essential as Trump disrupts the world order. Germany has been the largest European contributor to Ukraine's defense and - once again - a leading voice in the EU's response to the war. The EU's contributions of 115 billion euros to Ukraine's defense are second only to the United States' 119 billion euros. However, AfD and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, a new left-wing populist party, would like to end support for Ukraine and lift sanctions against Russia. **Total aid for Ukraine in billions of euros** ![Source: The Guardian](https://spotmedia.ro/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Ajutor-Ucraina-1024x526.png) ### Who Will Form the New Government? This is a key question for Germany, its neighbors, and its trading partners - what coalition agreement can be reached after the elections. Germany's electoral system is meticulously proportional, so it is highly unlikely that a party can govern alone. Friedrich Merz leads the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, which accounts for nearly 30% of the vote, so he could take over the chancellorship currently held by Olaf Scholz (SPD). The CDU has announced that it will maintain the "firewall" policy of not entering into an alliance with the far right, where AfD is at the forefront. But the "firewall" principle was seriously compromised during the election campaign when Merz attempted to pass a motion in Parliament with AfD's support to limit immigration. The attempt failed only because rebels from the CDU refused to cooperate. - [Political shock in Germany: Where does the cordon sanitaire against the far right fall? Conservatives ally with AfD](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/politica/soc-politic-in-germania-unde-cade-cordonul-sanitar-impotriva-extremei-drepte-conservatorii-s-au-aliat-cu-afd) After the shock of the CDU-AfD alliance, a bill with restrictions for illegal migrants narrowly failed in the German parliament The CDU may be able to form a coalition with the Greens or may have to rely on a "broad coalition" with the Social Democrats. However, most likely, there will be a massive vote for AfD and its policy towards Europe and Ukraine. This could make the coalition less stable, especially if Merz's party continues its efforts to attract AfD voters. Excluding AfD from coalition talks will reinforce the populist theory of a blockade imposed by the liberal elite. T.D.