If the motion of censure brought to a vote in Parliament today were to be adopted, with the votes of USR and another 18 deserters from the coalition, in addition to the signatories of course, the Government would fall, plunging us into a governmental crisis before the presidential campaign and under very difficult economic conditions.
The first immediate effect would be the fall of the stock exchange and a decrease in Romania’s chances of borrowing, even at huge interest rates, because it would enter a zone of maximum political unpredictability, with a bizarre pro-Russian extremist leading the presidential polls.
It is unlikely that there would be a quick solution to the political crisis, as long as the main party of the governing coalition would almost inevitably fall into turmoil, a turmoil postponed after the successive shocks of November, just because the party managed to maintain not only the government but also the position of prime minister. This was also the reason why Marcel Ciolacu avoided being devoured for the epic failure of the electoral autumn for PSD.
But once toppled, including with traitors from PSD, Marcel Ciolacu would collapse and the party would begin a power struggle among fierce pygmies, because unlike PNL in November, the social democrats do not have a leader of caliber to take the reins.
Since the party does not have its own candidate, a not unlikely effect, on the contrary, would be the splitting of the party, with some tempted to follow Victor Ponta towards what could seem like a better chance to remain in power. If the CCR eliminates Călin Georgescu from the race, an increasingly likely hypothesis, the adoption of the motion would substantially increase the chances of Victor Ponta to make it to the final round.
Throughout all this time, of course, the country would be in turmoil, the stock market would be in the red, and borrowing would be impossible. So chaos and panic, in which the only point of stability would be a president... and even he would be interim.
The probability of having a new coalition before the presidential elections would be minimal, and with interim after interim, in scandals and crises of all kinds, we would drift towards the presidential elections.
Who would benefit in such a situation? The signatories of the motion, of course, because extremists thrive on crisis and panic. Since they have no viable plan whatsoever, the ideal electoral fuel is disaster. Moreover, they would sell the departure of Marcel Ciolacu as a great success.
However, the motion has a minimum chance of passing, considering the announcement of USR leaders that they do not intend to vote for the motion, a completely rational decision, given the already exposed effects of a governmental crisis. With the strange exception of Claudiu Năsui's stance, the USR members seem to understand the risk of becoming useful idiots for extremists.
This does not mean that Marcel Ciolacu is a viable solution for 4 years. For now, he seems extremely affected by the defeat of November 24 and is doing bizarre things. But the worst are the Nordis scandal and the very bad situation he has brought the economy into. The balance of his rule represents a cause of the extremists' rise. But now, before the presidential elections, the fall of the Government would be catastrophic.
As he is arithmetically literate, I have no doubt that Mr. Simion knows that the endeavor is compromised from the start. And this endeavor is possible only once per legislative session. So the next motion of censure with the same signatures can be submitted only in the fall, regardless of the result of the presidential elections.
So why do it now with no chance, especially after stating just a week ago that you would only submit the motion if it was signed by the entire Opposition? Thus, it would rely on just a few traitorous votes from the coalition.
Either you naively hoped that the rally you scheduled for March 1 would be the decisive pressure element on the parliamentarians, especially USR, to vote. But the motion will be voted on a day before the rally, on Friday, a day when many parliamentarians already have a lot to do at home.
Or you have no confidence that yours will win the presidency, so you have no confidence that an extremist will take office at Cotroceni to force an extremist coalition. And then at least you use the motion as a campaign tool, which is becoming increasingly credible, considering Călin Georgescu's situation. The motion aims to strongly profile George Simion as the leader of the Opposition in the fight against the system and, implicitly, as the rightful heir of Georgescu's candidacy.
Or you want to secure Marcel Ciolacu's position at all costs, so that he is not moved until fall regardless of who wins the presidential elections. And indeed, for Marcel Ciolacu, surviving a motion of censure, with a high score, would be an important lifeline.