The collapse in which AUR finds itself was predictable, I would say inevitable, but it started sooner than expected, largely due to the merger of the European parliamentary elections with the local ones.
But it’s hard to estimate whether we are witnessing a real disintegration and if the drop in polls, of 3-4 percentage points per month, is real or rather an effect of the spiral of silence.
George Simion’s party has been embroiled in scandals for several days now, with members, some in leadership positions, even candidates, leaving AUR in a scandalous manner and with extremely serious accusations. Meanwhile, the leader is quite invisible, apparently more concerned with giving an external profile to the party.
For a relatively new party like AUR, the local elections test is probably the toughest, as they face the established structures and the already installed elected officials of the major parties.
Since incumbent mayors are favored and control their localities, it is quite difficult, especially in rural and small urban areas, to impose a challenger with chances.
To gain more attractiveness beyond the protest vote, AUR would have needed to enter the local elections after a very high score in the European parliamentary elections to validate and ride the wave. The merger of the elections cut off this chance for them.
Also, as expected, the local elections completely overshadowed the European ones, i.e., the political vote where the sovereignist and fiery themes of AUR were expected to bring the party a lot of votes.
June 9 is almost exclusively about local elections, especially about Bucharest, after the saga of the PSD-PNL candidates. This takes AUR out of the discussion.
In the same situation and having entered a shadow corner after the fading of the divorce soap opera, Diana Șoșoacă went to the spotlight with a candidacy for the mayor of the Capital. If the spotlight doesn’t come to her anymore, she goes where there is maximum illumination. George Simion did not have this ability.
To all this is added the fact that, we understand, George Simion personally brushed off all the lists of councilors. The removal of those he did not want caused major tensions in the party’s branches.
Polls reflect a significant decrease, beyond what the party of Mrs. Șoșoacă once had at a certain point. But if this is entirely real, it is still difficult to evaluate.
When a party and the choice for it are systematically demonized and ridiculed, there is a tendency for voters to hide their real electoral intention. The spiral of silence can conceal real percentages that may only surface discreetly in the voting booth.
On the other hand, polls do not take into account the vote from the diaspora, nor could they. And there, AUR has an important base, people who want to punish the parties they consider responsible for their distance from home. And there, the European parliamentary elections are not overshadowed by the local ones, which are so disadvantageous for AUR.
For PSD and PNL, the decline of AUR is not necessarily good news. Not now. The coalition loses the scarecrow through which it justified the joint list, but also the big evil in comparison with which they might even seem approachable.