“Well-dressed and well-read people say they vote for Ciucu, while the poor vote for Anca Alexandrescu,” a lady around 50 years old, who was part of a PSD campaign team distributing flyers with Daniel Băluță, told me.
The woman refused to identify herself for fear of losing her job, which brought her a few hundred lei for each street outing, being an important additional income for her.
I do not know if the opinion of a campaign employee illustrates the situation in the race for the Bucharest City Hall, two weeks before election day, but if it is placed next to what Ciprian Ciucu announced two weeks ago, as well as the statements of some sociologists analyzing the survey numbers, that there is a possibility for Anca Alexandrescu to come in second place or even win the elections for Bucharest, the initial statement indicates the electorate's options in Bucharest.
The next two weeks will be decisive, a period during which candidates are required by law to adhere to strict criteria for transmitting messages, to identify their campaign, and not to use illegal methods of promotion.
In this context, Anca Alexandrescu will lose the platform of her long daily shows on Realitatea Plus, and this disconnection from a part of her audience could disadvantage her.
Real Polls from Parties, Kept Secret
A survey published by INSCOP on November 20 caused astonishment in Cătălin Drulă's camp because he appeared in fourth position, being surpassed by over 9 percentage points by Anca Alexandrescu, the AUR candidate.
“And it would be so simple for the parties and candidates, all parties and all candidates, including those who see themselves as unfairly victimized, to transparently publish, in the name of democracy and respect for citizens, the real internal surveys, all the real internal surveys they have commissioned in the last 3 weeks with public funds. It would be such a simple and useful gesture for this great city that we all love,” wrote Remus Ștefureac, INSCOP director, on his Facebook page shortly after the survey was released, suggesting that the hierarchy presented is known at the level of sociological studies conducted by the political parties involved in the elections.
So, two weeks before the elections, in the voters' preferences, Ciprian Ciucu (PNL), the mayor of Sector 6, is in first place, leading by 3 percentage points over Daniel Băluță (PSD), the mayor of Sector 4, while Anca Alexandrescu (AUR) has risen to third place, 6 percentage points behind Ciucu and 3 behind Băluță. According to the data presented by INSCOP, Cătălin Drulă (USR) has practically dropped out of the race for Bucharest.
It should be noted that the survey is a snapshot of that specific moment, and things are likely to change until election day, therefore, when analyzing the numbers, the trends of voter support for the candidates must also be presented.
Victory, with Less Than 200,000 Votes
In the study conducted by INSCOP, comparing with previous surveys, trends of increased support for Ciprian Ciucu and Anca Alexandrescu are observed, a decrease in support for Cătălin Drulă, and stagnation for Daniel Băluță.
Also, the trend of increased support is more pronounced for Anca Alexandrescu compared to Ciprian Ciucu. It should also be noted that these trends may change in the following days.
But, today, two weeks before the elections, the following can be said:
- Ciprian Ciucu and Daniel Băluță remain favorites to win the Bucharest City Hall;
- The Liberal has slightly consolidated his advantage over the Social Democrat, turning Ciucu into the frontrunner, two weeks before the elections;
- Anca Alexandrescu (AUR) is rapidly catching up, and if she maintains her support growth pace, she will surpass the first two.
- So far, the option of strategic voting has not appeared in surveys, being too early, but sociological studies will indicate, from now on, more pragmatic positions among voters. Strategic voting favors the first two candidates in the race.
- Cătălin Drulă (USR) has lost touch with the leading group, not because he is unprepared or lacks political impact, but because he is not seen by voters as an experienced administrator or as one coming from the Opposition - anti-system, as they say.
The official electoral campaign is just beginning, it will last two weeks, voter turnout is expected to be low, under 500,000 voters, and the winner may win with much less than 200,000 votes.