Much of Romania’s misfortune, largely self-inflicted, in having probably the weakest lineup of political leaders in its history is somewhat compensated by the luck that things are not better in the extremist area either. As difficult as it proves to form a coalition in the pro-Western area, it is equally unlikely, fortunately, in the case of extremists.
Until the meteoric appearance of Călin Georgescu, the extremist area was disputed by two main actors, George Simion and Diana Șoșoacă, former allies who have come to hate each other thirstily, along with their electorates. But, to the same extent, they somehow managed to complement each other.
Șoșoacă captured the radical-hysterical anti-everything area, not just anti-system. People who do not need rational arguments, do not need viable plans, but rather seek refreshment through howls. And Diana Șoșoacă, one of the most uninhibited persons I have ever seen, was their continuous howl.
George Simion started somewhat similarly, after which he understood that long-term politics involves something more, because continuous hysteria tires and depletes its resources. He took Georgia Meloni as a model, although he is far from her caliber, he moderated, apologized for excesses, and positioned himself intensely populist, but less extremist.
The balance of this division, which did not allow either of them to become a real danger to Romania's future, but allowed for the continuous discharge of anger, was broken by the Constitutional Court's elimination of Diana Șoșoacă from the presidential race, hoping that her electorate would shift towards George Simion, who would thus enter the final to ensure Marcel Ciolacu an easy victory.
Whoever thought of this "genius" move did not take into account the fact that for Diana Șoșoacă and her electorate, George Simion represented the absolute enemy, the traitor to the cause, the sweet-talker to the system. Very few got over this profound adversity, most remained orphaned and more radicalized in search of a leader.
Will Georgescu run again?
Against this backdrop, Călin Georgescu's rise took place, the Messiah from the SIE laboratory of the 90s, always on the prowl looking for an opening that has now opened up to him like a boulevard he entered with TikTok speed and his skillful marketing offer of "something for everyone." With the same recipe, he also dragged a caricatural party into Parliament.
Georgescu is pleasing to the radicals, but without Șoșoacă's excesses, which made her undesirable for people who are now fascinated by Georgescu's half-truths, uttered with messianic haughtiness, intonation of Sergiu Nicolaescu, and a mystic Legionary arsenal.
The elections were annulled, which only increased Georgescu's popularity, the forbidden fruit. If he were to run, he would probably win, but, following the precedent of Șoșoacă, it is very likely that he will not make it onto the ballot.
The story with the ECHR is just a maneuver to maintain agitation, which deserves a separate analysis.
In short (until a detailed analysis), if Georgescu's request is found to be admissible in principle, which is extremely unlikely, years will pass before a definitive solution is reached. And if, extremely improbably, he were to win, the ECHR cannot annul CCR decisions and call for new elections.
The ECHR can only ascertain that rights have been violated, award compensation, and may request legislative corrections for the future. Codruta Kovesi won at the ECHR, but did not regain the leadership of the DNA.
It is also worth noting that people who praised the CCR after the dismissal of LCK or when they butchered the criminal laws and the ICCJ, now realize that it is politically appointed and want to dismantle it. And the one who proclaimed sovereignty, non-interference of external institutions, asks the ECHR to interfere to restore order in sovereign Romania and to trample on the CCR.
Will anyone take over Georgescu's capital?
Very unlikely. Because without this common denominator, the battle between extremist leaders will resume with intensity.
Simion is sticking close to Georgescu hoping to take over as much as possible, but Șoșoacă can resist against him. Other small delirious messianics like Zamfirescu or Puric have also begun to spread their wings, but neither Simion nor Șoșoacă will seek a new leader.
In these conditions, unifying the extremist movement for another candidate is very unlikely. And it is enough to look at Parliament where the extremists have already started to strike deals with the power. It was seen in the vote for the heads of chambers and will intensify.
This does not mean that the popular anger that lifted Georgescu will dissipate on its own. There is only one chance for calm: good governance.
Otherwise, this fluid mass will await its new Messiah, who will surely appear by 2028.