Marcel Ciolacu has achieved a first-time underperformance in the history of PSD: the first time the party has no representative in the presidential final and the lowest parliamentary score in the party’s history under its various names in the past 35 years.
The other PSD presidents paid for much less, such as defeat in the second round, sometimes after truly dramatic struggles.
However, Marcel Ciolacu has the chance, also for the first time, to survive the electoral disaster and maintain both his current positions. He is also lucky.
Ciolacu's Luck
There is no strong rival leader, like Ponta had Dragnea, for example, who is not deeply involved in the failure of the presidential elections. Everyone made costly decisions, some were on the Nordis plane.
Although well contained, the party is seething with anger against the entire leadership that made unimaginable strategic errors, starting with ignoring the two clone parties that deprived PSD of about 200,000 votes and culminating in the donation of votes on November 24. With any failure, the anger will erupt and lead to consequences.
Furthermore, PSD's poor score comes in an extremely complicated configuration of Parliament, where governance is impossible without this party.
Therefore, Mr. Ciolacu is in a good negotiating position and to offer the party the fundamental goal - not only to remain in power, but to lead it outright.
He may survive the political epic failure if he renews his mandate as prime minister. If he somehow misses this goal, even if the party remains in power, Mr. Ciolacu would be finished and it would only be a matter of time, a short time, until he is devoured.
And one of those waiting for the moment, being involved in the loss of power, is none other than Victor Ponta.
Therefore, the position of prime minister is Mr. Ciolacu's essential goal, quite evidently and logically.
Governance with Whom?
The majority for this claim is: PSD-PNL-UDMR-minorities, with or without USR (I will come back).
I don't think he is considering a majority with AUR, which, as I mentioned, he is not even required to. For two pragmatic reasons. One is that it would destroy PSD's external image, for which he worked hard to rebuild after the Dragnea era. This would mean even losing European funds and explaining to the people why pensions and salaries are not being paid.
The second reason is that AUR would be an extremely difficult and unpredictable partner, a dangerous and undisciplined force.
Who Will Designate Marcel Ciolacu as Prime Minister?
There are only two options: either Elena Lasconi or Călin Georgescu. I have no doubt that Mr. Ciolacu is exploring both options, even if he publicly displays only one of them.
The most likely is Georgescu, based on all current sociological data. It is also the option that resonates with the majority of the PSD electorate.
On Tuesday evening, on Marius Tucă Show, Călin Georgescu stated that he wants a stable government, which he plans to achieve by appointing a prime minister who has a majority, is morally and professionally prepared, and with whom he can negotiate the government program. "We respect the Constitution," said Călin Georgescu.
However, the option of Elena Lasconi cannot be excluded, and public negotiation with her enhances Mr. Ciolacu's Euro-Atlantic image, using discussions to convey fiery pro-EU and pro-NATO messages strategically intertwined with conservative nationalist ones: "our country's European path must continue only by defending much more decisively traditional values, national identity, and the faith of this nation."
Another issue that interests Mr. Ciolacu is the composition of the majority and therefore the government he will lead. In short, neither he nor PSD are enthusiastic about USR for many reasons.
Only with PNL and UDMR is there a majority, not as solid, but paradoxically, perhaps more stable, at least in Mr. Ciolacu's view.
Would Elena Lasconi, as president, agree to leave USR in opposition? It's a question with an answer, in my opinion, much less certain than it may seem at first glance. Has Mrs. Lasconi forgotten how she was removed from the European Parliament list and how alone she was for most of the campaign?
Will Ciolacu Choose?
A public promise from Marcel Ciolacu to offer him the position of prime minister and, at best, the desired government composition would be the safest way for Mrs. Lasconi to attract a significant part of the PSD electorate, who would be interested in choosing her.
Mrs. Lasconi is making an effort. At Antena 3, she spoke of "Marcel Ciolacu's wisdom," almost offering him the position of prime minister, promising to be an honest and trustworthy partner, and even revealing that her mother has always voted for PSD.
It remains to be seen, however, if Marcel Ciolacu will accept to go with only one option. If he decides by Friday to announce support for Mrs. Lasconi, we can suspect that it is also based on external commitments whose non-compliance he knows would be fatal.
On the other hand, Călin Georgescu would offer Marcel Ciolacu something else - the chance for long-term relaunch.
Elena Lasconi as president would be the savior, the leader around whom democratic politics would coalesce in the fight against darkness. If Mr. Georgescu wins, the leader of the democratic forces will install Prime Minister Ciolacu, called as both prime minister and leader of the pro-European majority to fight the dragon on the hill.
An advantageous position in the long term, because escaping immediate danger does not mean definitive salvation. Victor Ponta remained prime minister and PSD president for quite some time after losing the elections.
Even though, as I said, there is no Dragnea now, it is only a matter of time until one appears, if the leader is not strong and the suffering of defeat was so great for PSD.