I find it quite hard to believe in the seriousness of an opinion poll that credits Anamaria Gavrilă with 30%, ranking first if George Simion were not to run. A percentage similar to Simion’s if Gavrilă were not to run.
Whichever way you look at it, it’s very hard for me to believe that fanaticism has reached 30% in the Romanian electorate, because aside from this darkening of the mind, I see absolutely no rational reason why anyone would opt for the bizarre candidate „it is what it is,” who came out of nowhere with a discourse embarrassing even for primary school levels.
I understand that one explanation could be the desire for a "back to the second round," but how can you believe that Ms. Gavrilă is capable of fulfilling it?
If it's truly like that, I fear that we are lost as a nation.
The transfer of credibility from Călin Georgescu, a character who next to Ms. Gavrilă might even seem brilliant, never happens smoothly, as if you were moving some sacks of potatoes from one trailer to another, unless, as I mentioned, we are talking in terms of terrifying fanaticism.
But this survey, conducted exclusively online, through random digital recruitment method, may have an interesting effect on extremist candidates.
Who withdraws
Theoretically, according to the initial announcement, one of the two isolationists is supposed to withdraw by March 20, when the candidacies will become final. Until this survey, it seemed absolutely logical for only Mr. Simion to remain as the unclaimed heir of Georgescu.
But this survey could give Ms. Gavrilă arguments to claim the candidacy on equal footing. She already talks about the need for an internal survey, which means her.
So far, it would have suited George Simion perfectly not to run, but only in favor of Georgescu or heroically blocked by the system, which would have validated him.
To give way to Anamaria Gavrilă would mean the end of his leadership, just like missing out on the second round again. Something that Gavrilă, if she remains on the list, can provoke him with the few percentage points she can nibble away at.
And who would support her? Whether openly or not, Călin Georgescu, who has no interest in raising a new extremist leader and being forgotten, with 3 criminal cases hanging over his head, especially after learning from the Constitutional Court that candidacy blocking is not lifelong. And I wouldn't rule out a bit of help even from Claudiu Târziu, who is openly at war with George Simion.
The Useless Pressure on Lasconi
On the other hand, the strange survey seems intended not only to validate Nicușor Dan but also to put immense pressure on Elena Lasconi, explicitly threatened with disaster if she does not withdraw.
The percentage attributed to Ms. Lasconi, under 4%, is quite improbable not compared to the votes obtained on November 24, the result of a special mobilization against Simion at that time, but taking into account the electorate she gathers through her profile.
There are areas that Ms. Lasconi has access to through her openly assumed positions pro LGBTQ adoption, pro civil partnership, pro-Zelenski, areas that are not accessible to USR, but neither to Nicușor Dan who is absolutely unclaimed on delicate issues and perceived more as a homophobe after leaving the party because it opposed the traditional family.
The pressures for Ms. Lasconi to withdraw to maximize Nicușor Dan's chances show a weak understanding of the electorate, in fact. The same belief that voters are sacks of potatoes.
On the Lasconi-Dan line, radicalization is intense. Those who want ND have already moved to his camp with arms and baggage, they don't need Lasconi to show them the way.
And those who have remained with her or could come to her from Georgescu, because she is indeed the only one with a real profile independent of the system, I don't think they would migrate to ND anyway, for various reasons.
Some because ND announced that he would want Crin Antonescu as an advisor at Cotroceni. Those who want Mr. Antonescu there, I don't see why they wouldn't vote for him. Others, because of the close association with the dubious pro-Putin Matei Păun or because Mr. Dan has no issue with Ciolacu as prime minister. Or because they consider him lacking in character, especially in his relationship with USR.
Or for any other reasons, for example, the protests in Pungești against Chevron, which the US Department of State suspected at the time were financed by Russia.
So a significant part of Elena Lasconi's electorate, in case of her withdrawal, would migrate to marginal candidates, or they wouldn't vote at all.
Just as strange is the low percentage of Victor Ponta in the Atlasintel survey. Before Georgescu's elimination, it was over 10%. Did it decrease after his elimination? Meaning, are the Social Democrats magnetized by Georgescu preferring to move to Gavrilă instead of coming to a, still, Social Democrat?
The real percentages, whatever they may be at this moment, are extremely fluid right now. May 4 is still far away.