The 2024 campaign had the appearance of extreme banality, which encouraged all sorts of result manipulation strategies for an ideal outcome.
Underneath the surface, however, a violent political and social volcano was simmering, which erupted, shocking everyone and completely changing the rules of the game. The chaos established then remained the norm in this campaign.
For the first time, we are no longer discussing in Romania about two major political blocs, the rule of elections up to now, which practically made the first round a formality with a known outcome from the start, with the exception of the 2000 accident.
We are discussing three political blocs, all in more or less spectacular crises, but certainly intense enough to deactivate some of their electoral potential.
### Corpul extremiștilor/izolaționiștilor
This bloc is riding the highest wave, raised by Călin Georgescu. It is disputed by two candidates. The favorite, implicitly for the first round, is George Simion, the president of AUR and self-proclaimed heir of Călin Georgescu.
Mr. Simion seems to be stabilized in polls at around 30%, he comes out little and controlled in public statements because he takes small risks. His growth potential at this stage is not very high, but it can collapse.
His biggest problem is that Mr. Georgescu has not personally expressed any explicit support. It has been attributed to him, not denied, but not confirmed either.
A second problem is the split within AUR. The removal of Claudiu Târziu, even if it did not have visible effects, can still prove to be problematic.
Victor Ponta is also trying to climb on this bloc, targeting especially the votes of isolationist Social Democrats who have abandoned the party’s official voting solution since November.
But not only that, because Victor Ponta is much more skilled and trained than George Simion, but being forced to communicate, to speak, to be very present, because he needs to grow, he exposes himself to the risk of errors and we have already seen one monumental error regarding the saving of Belgrade, which damages his nationalist brand.
Both declare themselves not only nationalists and Trumpists, but also anti-system. Which is amazing, considering that both, to varying degrees, of course, are 100% products of the system.
### Corpul coaliției de guvernare
With the unpopular governance burden on its back, this bloc theoretically moves with only one candidate, Crin Antonescu, placed substantially lower than the sum of the current scores, not to mention those from December 1, of PSD-PNL-UDMR.
An arithmetic difference generated, on the one hand, by a demobilization caused by the fact that none of the parties feel they truly have a candidate. For the first time, PSD does not have a Social Democrat on the ballot since the first round, the Liberals’ candidate was their president, but a long time ago. In 10 years, the party, a living organism, has changed a lot. And UDMR has an isolationist component inspired by Orban.
On the other hand, but also for the reasons mentioned above, Crin Antonescu shares the votes of the coalition parties with candidates from the other blocs, Victor Ponta from PSD, and Nicușor Dan from PNL.
This makes the bloc with the majority of mayors not at all sure that it will have its official candidate in the second round, which is unbelievable in politics, as we knew it.
### Corpul opoziției pro-europene
For their votes, extremely scattered among a medium-sized party, USR, and many non-parliamentary minuscule parties, two candidates are fighting in a hallucinatory situation.
Elena Lasconi, the president of USR and candidate with the USR logo on the ballot, is, in fact, independent, at least in relation to the party leadership, and Nicușor Dan, officially independent, but in fact the candidate of all small parties and the USR leadership.
– [USR voted again to support Nicușor Dan in the presidential elections. Lasconi threatens to sue the party](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/politica/lasconi-ameninta-ca-da-usr-in-judecata-si-acuza-o-epurare-politica-o-gasca-din-usr-incearca-sa-ma-elimine)
– [USR sues BEC after being banned from supporting Nicușor Dan: „An unprecedented abuse”](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/politica/usr-anunta-ca-va-contesta-in-instanta-decizia-bec-privind-interzicerea-sustinerii-pentru-nicusor-dan)
There is no doubt that the question will arise as to how a national bureau of 25 people and an informal political council can overturn with a majority vote the decision of a congress in which all party members voted directly.
The effects of this scandal on the redistribution of votes between the two candidates are difficult to predict at the moment. Most likely, there will not be a significant transfer from Elena Lasconi to Nicușor Dan, as the electorates of the two were already stabilized.
Elena Lasconi, victimized, could access the anti-system basin, while Nicușor Dan could convey the message of uniting the vote around him.
– [The USR coup and the suicidal vocation of the saviors. The boomerang effect of victimization](https://spotmedia.ro/stiri/opinii-si-analize/puciul-din-usr-si-vocatia-sinucigasa-a-salvatorilor-efectul-de-bumerang-al-victimizarii)
Overall, however, there is a risk that the huge scandal, the image of amateurism of USR, and the evident split within the party will contract the vote of this bloc by diminishing trust in its maturity and honesty.
### Nehotărâții
They are the fourth body, absolutely heterogeneous, the most unstable, but also the largest, around 45%. Its evolution is unpredictable, from absenteeism to massive migration towards one of the three political blocs depending on any event that may occur from now on.
Any major emotionally charged event can mobilize votes from this basin and influence the outcome even more strongly the closer it appears to May 4.